Dissecting the NFL: AFC West

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the AFC West.

The AFC West is a tough division to get a good read on. Between the Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos, and Kansas City Chiefs you have three teams who should compete for the division as well as a top seed in the AFC playoff picture. Even the San Diego Chargers have just enough talent to challenge for a .500 record. However, there is plenty of parity this year. The Broncos will attempt to adjust to life without quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler with journey man Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch. The Chargers will field a team that finished 4-12 and had a top three pick in the 2015 NFL draft. The Raiders have tons of talent to compete in the division, via free agency, but none of the players have yet to play a snap together. If history is any indication, free agency “winners” don’t often pan out (ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers). The Chiefs managed to resign their key players, aside from cornerback Sean Smith, and appear to be the one true team to take the division with ease. All four of these teams could compete and shock the AFC. Let’s dive into some analysis.

Denver Broncos:

First off, congratulations Denver on being the reigning Super Bowl champions. You also managed to resign outside linebacker and Super Bowl MVP Von Miller as of just a few short hours ago. Those two big wins should give you plenty of optimism going into this season. Head coach Gary Kubiak and General Manager John Elway have this team consistently headed in the right direction with smart offseason moves and terrific drafting. Unfortunately, aside from resigning Von Miller, this offseason was a tough one for the Mile High city. Free agency hit this team hard, watching stud defensive players in linebacker Danny Trevathan and defensive lineman Malik Jackson move on to new teams. Those two were big time contributors on what was the league’s best defense. The team also saw future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning retire. While he wasn’t even close to his best last season, Denver would certainly love to have him back right now. Denver also lost who they once saw as the heir apparent to Manning in Brock Osweiler to the Houston Texans. Denver responded by trading for Mark Sanchez and spending their first round pick on Paxton Lynch. Lynch was a quarterback at Memphis who looks like a potential franchise a quarterback after a season or two of molding. Sanchez is nothing but a back-up quarterback at this point in his career and will be asked to play a substitute teacher role while Kubiak and Elway develop Lynch. This could be troublesome for the offense.

Meanwhile, the Broncos return starting wide outs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. The two should help out whoever is starting at quarterback with reliable hands and great route running ability. Running back CJ Anderson will attempt to become a bell-cow for the team. I don’t personally believe in Anderson, at all. Should Anderson falter, this could lead to a struggling offense that could become one dimensional quickly. The strength of this team will be its defense. Previously mentioned Von Miller will be joined by fellow outside linebackers Demarcus Ware, Shane Ray, and Shaquil Barrett. Linebacker Brandon Marshall will man inside duties. Defensive lineman Derek Wolfe will become the captain of the defensive line. Denver hopes fellow defensive lineman Sylvester Williams can step into Malik Jackson’s role. The secondary will feast on opposing offenses. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, and Bradley Roby are about as good as it gets. They will be joined by safeties Darian Stewart and TJ Ward for what should be a top five secondary in the league.

The biggest weak link is quarterback, but I expect the entire offense to stumble. Especially if the run game doesn’t pan out and the offensive line continues to struggle. The Broncos addressed the offensive line by bringing in offensive tackles Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson. Rookie running back Devontae Booker could also provide the needed boost in the run game, so long as he is healthy. The offense is all potential that will need until at least mid-season, maybe longer to gel. The team will win games with its defense. Look for the Broncos defense to make plenty of top ten appearances in major stat categories and the offense to be in the twenties in major offensive stats. This should be a “down” year for the reigning Super Bowl champs, and that’s O.K. This team will be a tough out week-in and week-out.

Record Projection: 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs:

The Kansas City Chiefs yield an offense that is just good enough to win games and a defense that should give opposing offensive coordinators nightmares. Head coach Andy Reid’s offense featuring quarterback Alex Smith will limit their turnovers and allow the team to consistently drain the clock to close out games, even if they only put up 20 points a game. With weapons like wide receiver Jeremy Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce, the offense can be opened up for the plethora of running backs this Chiefs have stashed away. It starts with future Hall of Famer Jamaal Charles. Even coming off an injury, Charles is one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL. His breakaway speed and receiving ability gives the offense the spark needed to open up the rest of the offense. Coming off an ACL tear, expectations for Charles should be tempered (regardless of my previous article on Charles). When completely healthy, Charles is a top three back in the league and arguably the most explosive. Running backs Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West also have tremendous value as change-of-pace weapons. Ware and West are just as capable of making big plays based off their performance last season after Charles’ unfortunate injury. The offensive line also added right tackle Mitchell Schwartz in free agency, helping Kansas City to form what should be one of the league’s best offensive lines.

Then we have the defense. The Chiefs boast a defense that should be turnover happy with all of their playmakers. Cornerback Marcus Peters in particular could be a major weapon for this team. As a rookie, Peters tied for the league lead in interceptions at eight. He unfortunately gave up eight touchdowns as well. He could easily make big strides forward as a future shutdown cornerback. Fellow cornerback KeiVarae Russell could also make a big impact as a rookie opposite Peters. Outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston should once again form one of the league’s top sack duos. Defensive linemen Jaye Howard and rookie Chris Jones as well as nose tackle Dontari Poe should also make plenty of plays in opposing backfield. Finally, we have the reigning Comeback Player of the Year in safety Eric Berry. Berry is a top five safety in the league and should challenge for an All-Pro spot in at a relatively weak position in the NFL. Berry is easily far and away one of the league’s elite safeties. Fellow safety Ron Parker is no slouch himself. Look for Parker to clean up tons of plays and be one of the most underrated defenders in the NFL.

The Chiefs should be able to walk away with this division. Short of Oakland’s free agent signings making an immediate impact and gelling immediately, no other team in this division is as complete as Kansas City. The biggest flaw on this team is quarterback Alex Smith. His dink-and-dunk style is great until the Chiefs fall behind in a game. This will be their biggest question mark come the post season: is Alex Smith good enough to win the big ones? We will more than likely find out this season.

Record Projection: 10-6

Oakland Raiders:

All hail the free agency kings, the Oakland Raiders. General Manager Reggie McKenzie was a busy man this offseason. The Raiders’ free agency signing include offensive guard Kelechi Osemele, linebacker Bruce Irvin, safety Reggie Nelson, and cornerback Sean Smith (plucked from the division rival Kansas City Chiefs). The team is no doubt loaded with talent. I just don’t like to jump onto to a team’s hype train after a fantastic offseason via free agency; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have screwed me so many times by this logic. But the team already boasted a talented roster. It all starts with quarterback Derek Carr. Carr is on his way to becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL. His arm is about as strong as they come, and his ability to take off running or stand in the pocket is extremely valuable to his offense. Matched with wide receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and even breakout a candidate in tight end Clive Walford, Carr has no shortage of weapons. Behind a revamped offensive line, and one that could be the best in the NFL, running back Latavius Murray has no excuses to not be a work horse for this offense. Rookie running back DeAndre Washington has the upside as a pass catcher as well as the explosive traits to be a change-of-pace back capable of breaking a big one thanks to his tremendous speed.

The defense has an All-Pro at TWO different positions last season (!) in Khalil Mack. Mack is the second best defensive player in the NFL behind JJ Watt and a top five player in general. Pass rushers are aplenty on this team aside from Mack. Previously mentioned Bruce Irvin will bring the heat from the edge. The team also invested two draft picks recently in defensive linemen Jihad Ward and Shilique Calhoun. Defensive lineman Mario Edwards and nose tackle Dan Williams return. As long as Edwards is healthy, this group is terrifying. The secondary got a needed boost following the retirement of future Hall of Fame cornerback/safety Charles Woodson. Previously mentioned Sean Smith and Reggie Nelson will join cornerback David Amerson and rookie safety Karl Joseph to form an opportunistic secondary.

Overall, the upside of this team is extraordinary. I just refuse to buy into the free agency hype. Truthfully, this team should compete for a playoff spot as well as the division crown. Anything short of that will be a pretty big disappointment. The team has the upside of a top ten passing offense with a run game good enough to close out games. This defense should challenge for the league lead in sacks and Khalil Mack could wind up leading the NFL in sacks. Look for a step forward from this team on the rise, but temper your expectations.

Record Projection: 9-7

San Diego Chargers:

Poor Philip Rivers. Trapped on a team with one of the worst defenses in the league and a constant revolving door on the offensive line. Short of oft-injured wide receiver Keenan Allen and aging veteran and future Hall of Famer Antonio Gates, the offense lacks the proper weapons to consistently scare opposing defenses. Rivers has one of the most talented arms in the NFL. If the team could find a way to protect him consistently, they could find a way to compete regularly even without a defense. Free agent signee Travis Benjamin at wide receiver will provide so much needed speed to the offense and an electric playmaker on special teams. A healthy Keenan Allen is deadly… One of my personal favorite wide receiver in the NFL, Allen was on pace for 134 receptions last season before suffering a freak injury against the Baltimore Ravens in the form of a lacerated kidney. That would have put him a mere two receptions behind league leaders Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. That’s some pretty nice company. When healthy, Allen should provide Rivers with one of his few reliable targets and will feast across the middle of the field. The Chargers are waiting on their investment in former 2015 first round pick running back Melvin Gordon to pay off. Gordon fumbled five times last season and failed to score a single touchdown as a rookie. His 3.5 yards per carry was also extremely disappointing. The offensive versatility will depend on Gordon showing his worth. No pressure.

This defense makes me sick to my stomach. The Chargers invested their top pick in the draft in defensive lineman Joey Bosa and also added linebacker Joshua Perry to make immediate impacts as likely starters. There is already tons of controvery with Bosa regarding his holdout and that could lead to major problems come the regular season. The team also added nose tackle Brandon Mebane to hopefully stop what is a constant nose bleed that is the team's run defense. Cornerback Jason Verrett plays well above his 5’9” frame and is one of the better and underrated cornerbacks in the league. The same can be said for fellow cornerback Brandon Flowers. Free agent signee Casey Heyward is expecting to make an immediate impact as the starting nickel cornerback. The biggest issue was letting stud safety Eric Weddle walk in free agency. The drama between Weddle and the Chargers front office reached ridiculous levels. It’s no wonder Weddle decided to leave in free agency. A big loss for this already struggling defense. The team desperately needs someone to step up and become the quarterback of the defense (looking at you, Manti Te’o).

This Chargers team top to bottom is a mess. If everyone can stay healthy, this team has the upside of a .500 record, but don’t count on it. If you’re a betting man, bet on this team competing for the number one pick in the 2017 NFL draft. There are plenty of pass rushers and some top tier offensive linemen to be had. That’s exactly what they need address. As Rivers gets old, San Diego’s window for a championship continues to close.

Record Projection: 3-13

Division Overview:

This division could either be a force in the AFC or a rather forgettable one. Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland’s defenses should provide some dominant performances and consistently make highlight worthy plays. San Diego’s defense should also appear in some highlight reels, but for all the wrong reasons. Short of Oakland’s offense, the rest of the division’s offenses should be slightly above average at best. If Oakland’s free agency signings pan out they could compete for the division and double digit wins. The Chiefs feel like a safe bet for double digit wins and a division title. And as for Denver, they need this offense for them to compete. The defense can only take them so far.

AFC West Projected Standings:

1. Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6 (4-2 in division)

2. Oakland Raiders: 9-7 (3-3 in division)

3. Denver Broncos: 8-8 (4-2 in division)

4. San Diego Chargers: 3-13 (1-5 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.