Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every
team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the NFC North.
The NFC North is on to something really special. Between the Green
Bay Packers possessing the best quarterback in the NFL and the Minnesota
Vikings possessing the youngest and brightest roster in the NFL, we have two
teams with serious Super Bowl hopes. Not to mention the Chicago Bears and
Detroit Lions both appear to be teams capable of competing for the playoffs
again in the near future. Each team possesses high upside offenses with
up-and-coming defenses. In fact, in three years who knows where all these teams
could be? The future is bright for this division. This season will be a
building block year for each team, but I expect some pretty solid seasons from
the four clubs.
Chicago Bears:
My how things have changed in a hurry. After allowing 27.6 points
per game, good enough for 31st overall, in 2014, the defense made
strides to improve to 24.8 points per game, good enough for 20th
overall (per The Football Database).
While the number isn’t the most impressive, jumping from 31st to 20th
is a big step in the right direction. The Chicago Bears front office also made
big moves in free agency and the draft to help with the defense. After finish
22nd overall against the run last season, the Bears spent their cap
space to sign middle linebackers Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. Trevathan
and Freeman will instantly help to shore up an up-and-coming linebacking corps
featuring underrated beast Pernell McPhee and rookie Leonard Floyd at the
outside linebacker spots. Floyd was drafted in the first round this year and is
expected to make an immediate presence as a pass rusher for the Bears. Between
stud corner Kyle Fuller and rising stars in second-year pros safety Adrian Amos
and nose tackle Eddie Goldman, head coach John Fox will have plenty of toys to
play with in his 3-4 defense.
The offense could also be in for an interesting year. Quarterback
Jay Cutler made nice strides last season under then offensive coordinator Adam
Gase, who has since moved on to the Miami Dolphins to become their head coach.
Hopefully Cutler can continue making positive steps forward without Gase calling the plays. Wide receiver
Alshon Jeffery will play this season under the franchise tag. When healthy, he
is one of the best wide receivers in the game and possesses the greatest body
control of a receiver I have ever seen. Fellow wide receiver Kevin White should finally take the
field after missing his entire rookie season. And surprise tight end Zach
Miller will hopefully pick up from where he left off last season to be a
productive piece for this offense. The biggest question mark will be at running
back, where second-year pro Jeremey Langford will likely be the starter. As a
rookie, Langford amassed and impressive 537 rushing yards and six touchdowns
through 16 games as Matt Forte's primary backup. However, he averaged a putrid 3.6 YPC. The Bears also
invested a draft pick in Jordan Howard (keep an eye on him, fantasy football nuts) to compete in what will be a running
back-by-committee approach.
This offense should be able to put a decent amount of points on
the board, especially with healthy wide outs Kevin White and Alshon Jeffery. If
the Bears want to win this year, it will be through defense. Their season will
largely depend on how well this defense plays. I’m not the biggest believer in
Leonard Floyd, but if anyone can get the most out of him it will be John Fox.
This defense is likely a year away, and this team likely needs two or three
seasons to gel before they can become true contenders. A top 15 draft pick
should help make moves towards that bright future.
Record Projection: 6-10
Detroit Lions:
Future Hall of Fame wide receiver Calvin Johnson hung up his
cleats this offseason after an outstanding nine-year career in Detroit. How are
the Detroit Lions going to pick up the slack for his absence? They won’t. But
that isn’t fair to expect of anyone. No one can replace Calvin Johnson and no
one ever will. What the Lions can do, and appear to be doing, is get enough
playmakers to help open up the entire offense the way Johnson did
single-handedly. Quarterback Matthew
Stafford looks ready to become one of the NFL’s best gunslingers. Wide
receivers Golden Tate and recently acquired Marvin Jones look to be his go-to
guys. A healthy Eric Ebron at tight end should be able to stretch the field
with his incredible speed and be a big target in the red zone. The run game
will be mediocre with running back Ameer Abdullah likely being “the guy” in what will be
another running back-by-committee approach also featuring Theo Riddick and
Stevan Ridley.
The defense seems to have some great pieces mixed with some O.K. pieces. Defensive lineman Ezekiel Ansah, cornerback Darius Slay, and linebacker
DeAndre Levy should all be Pro Bowlers. Previously mentioned Darius Slay has been pegged by many, including yours truly, as a breakout candidate this season. He could wind up as this year's Josh Norman.The rest of the roster is mixed with
average at best players. I personally love safety Glover Quin and believe
linebacker Tahir Whitehead can make more positive strides, but many others
would disagree and they could both regress. Rookie defensive lineman A'Shawn Robinson will be asked to be a day one starter and be a key contributor for the Lions' run defense. The same can be said of rookie safety Miles Killebrew. Between sub-packages on defense and special teams, Killebrew will likely be a contributor early on in his career. The great players on this defense
should be able to help to make the average players perform well, but that may
not be the case this season.
This team will win games with the offense, an offense I expect to
be top ten in the league in passing yards per game. They will, unfortunately,
get into plenty of shootouts with other teams and their inability to run the
ball could lead to the team failing to close out games. The Lions investment in
offensive tackle Taylor Decker in the first round of this year’s draft should
help solidify a solid offensive line for Stafford to throw in. Expect plenty of
close games for the Lions this season, heartbreaking losses, and hopefully a
coaching change for the future. I believe another good draft and a better head
coach can quickly turn this roster into something special.
Record Projection: 7-9
Green Bay Packers:
What’s not to like in Green Bay? The Green Bay Packers have long
reigned supreme in the NFC North, but the time may be fading. That means it’s
time for this team to load up and win a Super Bowl before the rest of this
division, especially Minnesota, catch up to them and make life harder. Thankfully,
a well-run organization starting with head Coach Mike McCarthy will keep this
well-oiled machine running for at least four or five more seasons. Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers is as good as it gets at the most important position in football.
Great drafting and key players returning from injury will help this team
immensely.
Rodgers will get back top wide receiver Jordy Nelson back from an
ACL tear. He joins a receiving core featuring fellow wide receivers Randall Cobb, Devante Adams, and Jeff Janis as well as tight ends Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers. The running game will be strong with an
in-shape Eddie Lacy as the starting running back and James Starks as the
change-of-pace back. Both backs also possess great receiving abilites, a valuable asset in the Green Bay offense. The offensive line should hopefully return to form and
provide a cleaner pocket for Rodgers than they did last season. The defense
looks optimistic, with stars throughout the starting 11. Linebackers Clay
Matthews and Julius Peppers will be the staple of the defense with great play
from a loaded secondary. Damarious Randall, Sam Shields, Morgan Burnett, and
Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix form what should be a top 10 secondary. Defensive lineman
Mike Daniels is also a budding star that will help solidify a solid front
seven. Rookie impacts from defensive lineman Kenny Clark and linebackers Kyler
Fackrell and Blake Martinez will also help this defense. Kenny Clark in particular will be an immediate starter on a defensive line that has plenty of underachieving high draft picks. The Packers hope the addition of Martinez will be enough to slide Matthews back out to his natural role at outside linebacker.
Overall, this Packers squad will win double digit games and I
believe lock down the division this season. This won’t be a cake walk, however,
thanks to improvements from the division. The Packers need to take advantage of
Detroit and Chicago continuing to rebuild/reload, as Minnesota is already
knocking at the door. The overall talent between youngsters and veterans will reign supreme over a young and emerging Vikings squad... for now. Now is the time to win another championship. Will this be
Green Bay’s year?
Record Projection: 12-4
Minnesota Vikings:
All hail the reining NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings. This
team, coached by defensive mastermind Mike Zimmer, appears to be on the cusp of
something extraordinary. General Manager Rick Spielman has once again locked
down a stellar 2016 draft. This team’s ceiling is sky high with potential. Like
it or not, the Vikings are legit Super Bowl contenders and will be for the next
four or five years.
It all starts with future Hall of Fame running back Adrian
Peterson. The timeless wonder should crank out another 1,000 yard rushing
season and double digit touchdowns to help even out the offense. Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater will need to take a step forward, however, for this team to
truly become a well-rounded offense. Bridgewater has thrown an underwhelming 28
touchdowns to 21 interceptions in 29 career games since entering the league in
2014. The bright side is he has completed 64.9% of his passes. The Vikings have
begun stocking up weapons for Bridgewater to throw to, so there are no excuses
this season. The Vikings spent a first round pick on wide receiver Laquon
Treadwell and return starter Stefon Diggs. Tight end Kyle Rudolph should be
healthy and return to Pro Bowl form. Anything less than 20 passing touchdowns
will be a big let-down by the third-year pro. Then we have the defense…This Vikings defense as a great chance to be a top ten or top five
unit this season. Star players are scattered throughout the team in defensive
linemen Everson Griffin and Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr, cornerback
Xavier Rhodes, and safety Harrison Smith. Studs in defensive linemen Danielle
Hunter, Sharrif Floyd, linebacker Eric Kendricks, and cornerback Captain
Munnerlyn will also have large impacts. Not to mention impacts from second-year
pro Trae Waynes and veteran Terrance Newman at cornerback as well as rookie cornerback
Mackensie Alexander could make this secondary one of the best in the league. Keep an eye out for seventh round pick Jayron Kearse. Kearse has NFL bloodlines (Jevon Kearse) and while very raw has a tremendous ceiling.
Scoring will be very difficult on this team. And that’s exactly how the Vikings
will win games this year. The reigns have been passed from Adrian Peterson to
this defense as far as the most dominant part of this team. Their time may not be this season, but it is coming. Expect the
playoffs this year and maybe more. Their future is brighter than any other team
in the NFL.
Record Projection: 11-5
Division Overview:
The NFC North has the brightest future of any other division and
two serious contenders in the Minnesota Vikings and the Green Bay Packers. In
three years, all of these teams could be in the hunt for a division title. This
season, expect some clutch wins and plenty of “wow” moments from the four
teams. Plenty of positives and negatives will come from each team. If they can
all hit their stride, this division could be a serious mess, as they could beat
up each other and cause an awkwardness in division standings. Look out, NFL,
this division is hungry.
NFC North Projected Standings:
1. Green Bay Packers: 12-4 (4-2 in division)
2. Minnesota Vikings: 11-5 (5-1 in division)
3. Detroit Lions: 7-9 (1-5 in division)
4. Chicago Bears: 6-10 (2-4 in division)
Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36.
Thank you for the read.
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