Friday, July 1, 2016

Dissecting the NFL: AFC North

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the AFC North.


The AFC North has reigned supreme for what feels like an eternity. With teams like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cincinnati Bengals, it's hard to not look at this division and be amazed at the talent. Even the Cleveland Browns boast some solid players, though the roster and coaching are a constant revolving door. Last season saw the division slip a little bit between and injury plagued Baltimore Ravens squad and a Cleveland Browns team once again finished well below .500. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers continued their dominance in the AFC with great offenses and solid defenses. This division should once again boast three teams above the .500 win mark (baring key injuries) and be a force in the AFC as a whole. Between the Bengals, Steelers, and Ravens, I can see three big time Super Bowl contenders and a Browns squad that should “compete” for the rights to the number one overall selection for the 2017 draft. It’s time again to dive into these four teams and breakdown my opinions and record projections.


Baltimore Ravens:

The injury bug decimated a talented Baltimore Ravens squad with Super Bowl expectations. Last season saw this Ravens squad simply destroyed by injuries and taking away any thoughts and hopes of the postseason. 20 players landed on injured reserve by seasons end, including quarterback Joe Flacco, pass rusher Terrell Suggs, running back Justin Forsett, and wide receiver Steve Smith, Sr. 2015 first round pick Breshad Perriman would also find himself on season ending injured reserve, failing to record even one snap of preseason and regular season. All this in mind, there is good reason for this Ravens squad to have some optimism entering this season.

For starters, John Harbaugh is still the head coach of this team. Harbaugh owns a 77-49 regular season record since becoming the head coach in 2008. This team is all-in on Harbaugh and the chemistry he has with his players shows that. A lot of returning starters can also make for a great team. If Flacco, Smith, Sr. and Suggs can return to form, this team will get an instant veteran boost. That is a big “if”, however, as they will be 31, 37, and 34 respectively before the post season – if they even make it. Pass rusher Elvis Dumervil is also 32 years old now and is coming off offseason foot surgery. This is coming from a player who clearly lost a step last season without his running mate in Suggs. It is also unfair to expect too much out of Steve Smith, Sr. Tasked with being the teams number one receiver may prove to be too much for the 37 year-old coming off a season ending Achilles tear.

The Ravens will host a slew of starters, 11 altogether, over age 30. This can be viewed as both a good and bad thing as the veteran leadership will be phenomenal, but all these players have likely lost a step from their primes. The offseason additions of safety Eric Weddle, tight end Benjamin Watson, and wide receiver Mike Wallace could prove to be major difference makers – especially Weddle in the secondary. General Manager Ozzie Newsome had another stellar draft featuring offensive tackle and first round pick Ronnie Stanley. The team also believes they can get major production from their other draft choices, such as running back Kenneth Dixon and linebacker Kamalei Correa. The defense will be captained by third-year linebacker CJ Mosley, who looks to make another step in the right direction for this team. All-in-all, a healthy Ravens squad could prove troublesome for their AFC North rivals. A lot will depend on the play of Joe Flacco coming off a season ending ACL tear. I believe as long as this team remains healthy, the playoffs could be in their future.

Record Projection: 10-6


Cincinnati Bengals:

Will this be the year the Bengals finally win a playoff game? Head coach Marvin Lewis sure does hope so, as his hot seat might as well be on the sun. They were so close to a win last year against their division rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers before some rather boneheaded penalties allowed the Steelers to win the game. It’s so unfortunate, too, as this Bengals team is simply loaded with talent. Top-to-bottom, there are very few teams who are as complete as the Bengals. Especially if quarterback Andy Dalton can pick up right where he left off last year before a thumb injury prematurely ended his stellar 2015 season.

This Bengals team has a ton of positives, starting with wide receiver AJ Green. Green is arguably a top five receiver in the NFL with his amazing blend of size, speed, hands, and body control. The backfield has great diversity and youth in running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. The offensive line, captained by left tackle Andrew Whitworth, should once again be a strength for this team. The defense features studs on the defensive line in Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. The linebacking core features a talented but knuckled headed beast in Vontaze Burfict. And the secondary has plenty of youth and untapped talent with safety George Iloka and 2016 first round pick William Jackson III. Fellow rookie wide receiver Tyler Boyd is also expected to make an early impact. The only downside is the unfortunate loss of many play makers thanks to free agency. However, young players are ready to fill in the holes, thanks to good drafting. Talent is not a question mark for this Bengals team, it’s the discipline of their key players.

Last January, the Bengals took a 16-15 lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers with just 1:36 left in the game. A costly Jeremy Hill fumble would give the Steelers the opportunity to win the game. Thanks to two massive personal foul penalties by cornerback Adam Jones and previously mentioned linebacker Vontaze Burfict, kicker Chris Boswell won the Steelers the game, 18-16. This is a common theme for the Bengals, however. Head coach Marvin Lewis has always lacked the discipline needed to win close games, as evidence by his 0-7 playoff record since 2003. Things need to change this year or this team could face a change at head coach. Whether the players love Lewis or not, things need to change fast. A great regular season is expected. Hopefully this is the season the Bengals can finally overcome their playoff drought.

Record Projection: 12-4


Cleveland Browns:

Congrats on your first championship since the 1950’s, Cleveland! No, I’m not talking about the Browns. I’m talking about the Cleveland Cavilers basketball team. Hopefully that championship will help you to get through this upcoming season, because it’s going to be another long and grueling season for Browns fans. The Browns are an absolute mess. They look no better than a new franchise team and there are very few bright spots. Left tackle, and future Hall of Famer, Joe Thomas, cornerback Joe Haden, and 2016 first round pick Corey Coleman are the teams few bright spots. The rest of this roster is simply a mess.

2016 marks the fourth time since 2010 the Browns face a coaching change. Head coach and offensive guru Hue Jackson hopes to change the philosophy of this Browns team and get them on the right track. A backfield featuring running backs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson will be intriguing and fun to monitor, especially Johnson. Previously mentioned wide receiver Corey Coleman can also make an immediate impact as the team’s number one receiver. The Browns also hope for a healthy bounce back season from cornerback Joe Haden. The team also hopes veteran tight end Gary Barnidge can pick up where he left off last season. That’s about all the positives I can think of.

This Browns team saw a lot of talented young players leave in free agency. Safety Tashaun Gipson, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, wide receiver Travis Benjamin, and center Alex Mack headline this list. Rookie General Manager Sashi Brown racked up an impressive 14 draft picks to round out a youth movement in Cleveland. A lot of these picks, however, need at least a few seasons to learn and reach their full potential. Unfortunately, a lot of them will see the field early and often to be immediate contributors, especially at wide receiver. Along with Coleman, the Browns spent five picks at the wide receiver position. All this to go with the biggest flaw on the roster: quarterback. Former 2012 second overall pick Robert Griffin III currently tops the depth chart. However, Griffin has looked extremely mediocre since his amazing rookie season. According to Pro Football Focus, Tony Grossi of ESPNCleveland.com has reported Griffin has had too many "look at me" moments and seems more concerned with himself than learning the offense and becoming the starting quarterback the Browns have liong been searching for. I expect Griffin to be well below average this season, as well as the rest of this Browns roster. The future may be bright, but this season will just be another rebuilding year. Hang in there, Cleveland.

Record Projection: 2-14


Pittsburgh Steelers:

What could’ve been for this loaded Pittsburgh Steelers squad? Had it not been for crucial injuries to star running back Le’Veon Bell and star wide receiver Antonio Brown, this team could’ve been a serious Super Bowl contender. The trio of Bell, Brown, and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger might just be the best in the NFL. Hell, this offense might just be the best in the NFL, even with the suspension of third-year wide receiver Martavis Bryant. Matched with an above average defense, I fully expect this Steelers squad to not only lock up this division, but challenge for a top seed for the AFC playoffs. The talent surrounding this roster has created a hype train so massive, the Los Vegas Super Bowl odds have given the Steelers the third best odds to win the Super Bowl at 10-1.

As previously mentioned, the three headed monster that is quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le’Veon Bell, and wide receiver Antonio Brown has sky high potential. A healthy Bell is the best running back in the NFL. In 16 games in 2014, Bell racked up over 2,200 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns. In six games alone last season he managed nearly 700 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns. Completely healthy, Bell should be able to return to dominant form, especially in this Steelers offense. Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Last season he grabbed 136 receptions (tied for most in the NFL), 1,834 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in the regular season. He did this despite a couple weeks of poor quarterback play due to an unhealthy Ben Roethlisberger. A healthy Roethlisberger could help Brown break a couple NFL receiving records this season, and Roethlisberger himself can challenge for 5,000 passing yards.

The defense is a bag of mixed results. The front seven, headlined by linebackers Ryan Shazier and Lawrence Timmons, should be hard to run on. Second-year pro Bud Dupree should be able to step up his production after grabbing four sacks through 16 games as a rookie. The defensive line should also be stout, featuring studs Cameron Heyward and Stephon Tuitt. This front seven will hopefully mask what should be a below average at best secondary. Cornerback William Gay will be the team’s best player in the secondary, and that spells trouble. The Steelers also felt pressed to spend their top two draft selections on cornerbacks Artie Burns and Sean Davis. It will be a hit or miss secondary. Altogether, this Steelers offense will be hard to match, but the secondary might force some shoot-out games for the Steelers. As long as they can remain relatively healthy, look for this Steelers squad to compete for the Super Bowl more seriously than the rest of this division.

Record Projection: 13-3


Division Overview:

The AFC North should return to prominence this season with a projected three teams with double digit wins. Those teams could also be serious Super Bowl contenders with offenses and defenses to go toe-to-toe with opposing teams. The Cleveland Browns may be competitive with their young roster, but I personally don’t expect too much from them. All-in-all, the AFC North could wind up as the best division in the NFL once again. Look out for these teams.


AFC North Projected Standings:

1. Pittsburgh Steelers: 13-3 (4-2 in division)
2. Cincinnati Bengals: 12-4 (4-2 in division)
3. Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (4-2 in division)
4. Cleveland Browns: 2-14 (0-6 in division)


Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.

1 comment:

  1. I agree with most of wht you wrote with a couple exceptions. The Bengals did take a hit to their receiving corp, so Dalton has a few less weapons at his disposal. As for three teams in this division having double digit wins, like the NFC West, this division too is top heavy and a win is not given nor guaranteed. That being said I doubt three teams will be standing at the end double digit wins, and the one left standing between your top three will win the divisionm

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