Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every
team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the AFC South.
As we enter the final division of each
conference, we get that much closer to preseason! Isn't that an exciting
thought? The AFC South is a division on the rise. This division looks a lot
like the NFC West did a few short years ago. Now it is the best division in
football. The AFC South has been the worst division in the NFL for years. The
Houston Texans were the annual cellar team. The Indianapolis Colts were the
only viable team (evident by their nine division titles since 2003). The Jacksonville
Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have been the biggest jokes of the NFL since the
2010s. This will all change within the next two seasons and maybe even this
season we could see all four teams finish with a .500 record. That’s how much
stock I have invested into these teams. Two young and talented rosters
and two teams with defensive lineman JJ Watt on one and quarterback Andrew Luck
on the other makes for an interesting division. Let’s take a closer look at what
would appear to be a crazy statement.
Houston Texans:
Your reigning AFC South champs also bring back the reigning
defensive player of the year in JJ Watt. That’s a good start. After making the
playoffs in 2016, the Texans were shut out at home by the Kansas City Chiefs,
30-0. That’s about as embarrassing as it gets. Head coach Bill O’Brien and
General Manager Rick Smith responded by attacking their offense in the
offseason. The draft saw Smith bring in wide receivers Will Fuller and Braxton
Miller in the first and third rounds respectively as well as center Nick Martin
in round two and running back Tyler Ervin in round four. Then in free agency,
the Texans made massive splashes by signing quarterback Brock Osweiler and
running back Lamar Miller. Osweiler was signed to a four-year $72 million
contract to become the team’s franchise quarterback. Standing at 6’7” and with
massive arm strength, Osweiler has the tools needed to be a franchise
quarterback. However, in 2015 despite starting seven games Osweiler delivered
average results. This came after sitting three years and learning behind greats
like Peyton Manning and John Elway. The team is hopeful Bill O’Brien can get
the most out of him. Meanwhile, Lamar Miller is coming off a season in which he
was arguably the most explosive runner in the NFL despite his criminal under usage
in Miami. Miller will join a team that has finished first and fifth in rush
attempts in two seasons under Bill O’Brien. This could be exactly what they
needed.
Miller and Osweiler will join wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to
form what could potentially be a top five trio in the NFL. Hopkins is coming
off a season in which he grabbed 111 receptions for 1,521 receiving yards and
11 touchdowns despite having the likes of Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer, and Brandon
Weeden throwing him the ball. If Osweiler can be even average, Hopkins can
replicate what he did last season. Second-year wide receiver Jaelen Strong also
has the upside to be a tremendous number two receiver if he can get his head straight
and see the field more often. Add in the previously mentioned rookies and
veteran Cecil Shorts and this wide receiving corps is deep and talented. It’s
too bad there is virtually no quality tight ends on this team. The likely
starter is between CJ Fiedorowicz (say that five times fast) and Ryan Griffin. That
doesn’t build much hope there. Thankfully, Lamar Miller is also a talented
receiver and should help a ton in the passing game as well. Behind an offensive
line featuring offensive tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton, the offense should
be able to put up more than zero points in their next playoff appearance (one
can only hope).
Finally, a defense captained by JJ Watt should be a good one. Despite
recent reports JJ Watt needed offseason back surgery (via ESPN),
Watt believes he will be O.K. to start week one of the regular season. Watt has
never missed a regular season game in his career and it’s hard to go against
him considering what he’s done. The rest of this defense is stellar. Outside linebackers
Whitney Mercilus (seriously, such an awesome last name for a pass rusher) and
Jadeveon Clowney will make Sunday’s miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Let’s
get one thing straight right now: Clowney, when fully healthy, is a beast. If he
plays 16 games this year, I think he will grab double digit sacks. He is an
amazing edge setter against the run and he can pressure the quarterback with
ease. He is NOT a bust. He is about to explode this year. Just watch. Now that
that is settled, linebackers Brian Cushing and Benardrick McKinney form a great
one-two punch. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork, despite his age and decline in play,
will round put a fantastic front seven. Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph, Kareem
Jackson, Kevin Johnson, and AJ Bouye make a talented and deep group. Safety is
a slight weakness, but plenty of names (Kurtis Drummond, Andre Hal, and Antonio
Allen to name a few) will make a decent rotation. All in all, this Texans team
should take the division this year while the other three teams continue towards
the future. If everything clicks, they could make a deep post season run. Don’t
sleep on the Texans as a potential Super Bowl contender. The hype is real.
Record Projection: 10-6
Indianapolis Colts:
The Colts just two seasons ago were playing in the AFC
Championship game and appeared to have quite a bright future ahead of themselves
despite their blowout loss to the New England Patriots. Since the Colts drafted
Andrew Luck first overall in 2012, the Colts had made the playoffs three
straight years and gotten one game deeper into the playoffs every year. That meant
2015 had massive expectations. Following that trend, they Colts should have
advanced to the Super Bowl. Instead, the fell flat on their faces and flopped
to an 8-8 record. The failure can be attributed to many things; the biggest
reason was the failure to properly protect Andrew Luck. According to SB Nation,
Luck has been knocked down (sacks and hits) more than any other quarterback
since he joined the league. In sacks alone, he was sacked 15 times in just
seven games in 2015 before he hit the injured reserve due to a lacerated kidney.
The Colts need to keep their quarterback up if they want to compete. Clearly
they got the message, spending four of their eight 2016 draft picks on
offensive linemen. First round pick center Ryan Kelly has some tremendous
upside and could immediately become a top eight center in the league (I expect him
to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie).
The passing offense will have no trouble putting up points. Between
wide receivers TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett plus tight end
Dwayne Allen, Luck has plenty of weapons to throw to. The run game will be
slightly suspect, with a 33-year old running back in Frank Gore being the head
guy. They also don’t have the greatest depth in the world behind him
(journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman are his primary backups). Behind an
already suspect offensive line, the run game should finish in the bottom half
of the league. Fun fact: the Colts haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Joseph
Addai did it in 2007 (!!!). That’s a trend that will likely continue through
this season. While Gore did manage 967 rushing yards last season, that was
largely because Luck missed nine games. With Luck under center for 16 games and
healthy, Gore should see more than that many yards in 2016. That would be a bad
thing at all considering Gore is 33-years old!
This defense, in comparison to the offense, will have a hard time
maintaining leads. The Colts as of now will roll out with eight key
contributors on defense of at least age 30. That’s not ideal. The front seven
should be decently stout with edge rushers Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik
Walden (all at least age 30) attacking the quarterback. The defensive line
features Arthur Jones (suspended the first four games) and Kendall Langford
(both age 30) as well as rookie Hassan Ridgeway. Ridgeway is extremely raw but
has tons of upside. Behind head coach and defensive mastermind Chuck Pagano, he
could turn into a beastly defensive linemen in the next few years. The secondary
has Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, who can easily shut down one half of the
field. The rest of the cast is solid. Safety Mike Adams (35-years old) and
fellow cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler should help round out
what will be an average secondary. Rookie safety/cornerback TJ Green has
tremendous upside and the ability to be an immediate impact player for the
Colts. All in all, this team should lose and win plenty of shootouts. The team
overall is simply too old and not talented enough to compete in the AFC let
alone their own division. Look for another average year from the Colts in 2016.
But good drafting and smart free agency signings could have this team back in
the Super Bowl conversation quickly. With Andrew Luck at quarterback, anything
is possible.
Record Projection: 8-8
Jacksonville Jaguars:
DUVAL! A team on the rise, Jacksonville could finally see its
first winning team since 2007. Head coach Gus Bradley and General Manager David
Caldwell have slowly but surely taken a talent depleted roster and turned it
into one of the NFL’s youngest and up-incoming teams. Unfortunately, the Jaguars
may still be one year away and time may be up for Bradley and Caldwell after
three years of building and losing. Hopefully that’s not the case, as I believe
they are both perfect to take this team forward for the next five years. Even
at just 5-11 last season, the Jaguars offense looked like it could compete with
anyone. Quarterback Blake Bortles tossed 35 touchdowns last season thanks in
part to the Allen Brothers (patent pending) in Allen Robinson (league high 14
touchdowns) and Allen Hurns (10 touchdowns). A young defense with mastermind
Gus Bradley could also be a massive sleeping giant to become one of the league’s
best defenses.
Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns are a dynamic
three-piece. A healthy Julius Thomas at tight end could make them even scarier
in the passing game. A two-headed beast in running backs TJ Yeldon and Chris
Ivory could make this offense very well rounded. A high upside offensive line
with pieces such as offensive guards Brandon Linder and AJ Cann and offensive tackle
Kelvin Beachum could become a top 12 unit and give Bortles time to throw darts
all day long. Put all of that potential together and this offense could wind up
a top five unit in scrimmage yards. I fully expect the team to be in the top
five for passing yards. If the run game can take a step forward, the talent is
there for the Jaguars to run the table and score 25+ points a game. That should
be the team’s biggest strength.
The Jaguars’ defense is young, loaded, and ready to make a name
for itself. The defensive line is the deepest unit, featuring new free agent
gem defensive lineman Malik Jackson as well as fellow defensive linemen Sen’Derrick
Marks, Roy Miller, Tyson Alualu, and Jared Odrick. The defensive line also
carries Dante Fowler and rookies Yannick Ngakoue and Sheldon Day. The Jaguars
also added Bjoern Werner in free agency. Holy *explicit*! The linebacking corps
features veteran Paul Posluszny and one of the youngest stars in the NFL in Telvin
Smith. The secondary possesses upside with safeties John Cyprien and Tashaun
Gipson. Cornerback will be an interesting competition with guys like Davon
House, Dwayne Gratz, Prince Amukamara, and Aaron Colvin (suspended the first four
games of the season). Oh, and I forgot to mention the Jaguars added cornerback
Jalen Ramsey (my top prospect) and linebacker Myles Jack in the first two
rounds of the 2016 draft. Both of them were viewed universally as top ten
prospects. No big deal. If everything pans out, this defense could be a top 12
unit in yards allowed and the offense a top five unit in scrimmage yards. Unfortunately,
this Jaguars team is too inexperienced and too much potential for me to give
them anything better than 8-8. I love this team to pieces, but it may take one
more year before we can talk about the playoffs.
Record Projection: 8-8
Tennessee Titans:
The Titans just made their future so much brighter thanks to the
Jared Goff trade (see my previous article on the NFC West.
The only real question I have for this team: is Mike Mularkey really the head
coach who can get you to the next level? I don’t believe so as of writing this,
but I have been wrong many times before and will be wrong countless more times
to come. However as it stands, I love this team. The Titans do have their
franchise quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the team invested in protecting him
better this offseason via offensive tackle Jack Conklin in the first round of
the 2016 draft. Mariota showed so much promise in his rookie season and I believe
he can make massive steps forward in just his second year.
The Titans have invested heavily in the run game this offseason,
as evident in their trade for running back DeMarco Murray and drafting Heisman
Trophy winner Derrick Henry in round two of the 2016 draft. This fits what
Mariota does well, as he is known as a mobile/scrambling quarterback. Expect all
three of these men to grab 100 carries this season rushing. The team’s power
run game will be what drives this offense, and I expect the team to finish in
the top eight in the NFL in rushing yards. The passing game needs more weapons,
but wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham can establish himself as the team’s true
number one receiver this year. Matched with tight end Delanie Walker, Mariota
has two go-to targets in the passing game. The rest of the depth isn’t anything
to write home about, with names such as Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Justin
Hunter, Rishard Matthews, and newly signed Andre Johnson making up the teams
wide receiver corps. Rookie wide receiver Tajae Sharp could turn out to be a
good contributor if he can be developed properly. The offensive line could be
an up-incoming unit, featuring offensive tackles Taylor Lewan and previously
mentioned Jack Conklin. The offense should be decent enough to win close games,
but if they get down early it will be hard for them to throw their way back
into games.
The defense has some awesome names such as pass rusher Brian Orakpo,
defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, and cornerback Jason McCourty. The rest of the
defense is solid with some upside players. The defensive line is my favorite
unit, with names such as Daquon Jones, Al Woods, Karl Klug, and rookie Austin
Johnson. The unit could become one of the league’s better units in a couple
seasons. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard had one of the most under-the-radar seasons
in the league last year and should be a tackling machine once again in 2016. Pass
rushers Derrick Morgan and rookie Kevin Dodd could also make big plays and Dodd
could even be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. The team brought in
safety Rashad Johnson in free agency to be a turnover machine in a secondary
featuring safety Da’Norris Searcy and cornerbacks Perrish Cox, Brice McCain,
Antwon Blake, and rookie Kalan Reed. Truth be told, this defense is a year away
at the earliest and the offense needs more weapons in the passing game before
it can reach its true potential. The Titans will be competitive in 2016, but
more work is needed before this team can truly be labeled a “team on the rise”.
Record Projection: 6-10
Division Overview:
The AFC South with be a decent division in 2016. In 2017? Who knows.
The sky is the limit. I like all four of these teams a lot, but odds are in
2016 the Texans should run away with this division. Young teams like the
Jaguars and Titans will make this division very interesting and certainly
anything is possible with Andrew Luck at quarterback, however. I look forward
to watching this division and will be monitoring it very closely. The future is
bright, AFC South teams.
AFC South Projected Standings:
1. Houston Texans: 10-6 (5-1 in division)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (3-3 in division)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 (2-4 in division)
4. Tennessee Titans: 6-10 (2-4 in division)
Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on
twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.
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