Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every
team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the NFC South.
And then there was one. As we wrap up our Dissecting the NFL series, we take a
look at a division with plenty of talent, just not enough to truly threaten the
NFC – short of Carolina. The Panthers have asserted themselves as the best of
the best in the NFL following their impressive 15-1 regular season record in
2015. They were a Super Bowl championship away from being one of the most
dominant teams in NFL history. The rest of the division looks like great
offenses with average at best defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a lot of
people’s sleeper team for the playoffs this year due to the continued
progression of quarterback Jameis Winston. The Atlanta Falcons look to rebound
from a down-year from quarterback Matt Ryan. And the New Orleans Saints will
attempt to get future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees to the big game one
last time as he enters the twilight of his career. As for the Panthers,
reigning MVP quarterback Cam Newton will lead the charge once again for what
should be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Newton will be matched with what
should be one of the best defenses in the NFL. Now for one last time this year,
let’s dive into analysis with my opinions that I am sure you all hate.
Atlanta Falcons:
The Falcons weren’t expected to do very much last season, and then
they jumped out to a surprising 5-0 start to the season. Right as everyone was
starting to respect the Falcons (and also seriously question how they did it),
they wound up dropping eight of their last 11 games. How on earth did they do
that? The Falcons talent should be able to be a top 12 offense in total yards
with previously mention Matt Ryan at the helm. However, last season was not
what we were used to seeing out of Ryan. Ryan only tossed 21 touchdowns last
season with a whopping 16 interceptions and eight fumbles. Ryan needs to right
the ship and cut down on the turnovers in 2016 if the Falcons want any shot at the post season. As for the
rest of the team, running back Devonta Freeman enjoyed a career year in 2015. Freeman
rushed for 1,056 yards with 11 touchdowns plus 73 receptions for 578 receiving
yards and three more touchdowns. That looks fantastic on paper, but look closer
and you notice his numbers are extremely deceiving. According to Matt Camp’s
article (via Bleacher Report),
Freeman rushed for 100 yards in four of the first eight weeks, and then had
only two games of 70+ yards the rest of the season. He also scored nine of his
11 touchdowns over the first nine games. Freeman needs to be way more
consistent, more so than Ryan, for this team to succeed.
That good news is the Falcons offense should be able to be more
consistent than in 2015. For starters, second-year pro running back Tevin
Coleman appears pretty healthy (aside from a recently reported “minor” foot
injury (via AJC.com).
Coleman, when healthy in 2015, appeared to be just as productive as Freeman. Should
Freeman start off cold or continue his late season struggles, Coleman should be
able to step in seamlessly for the Falcons. The Falcons also added center Alex
Mack and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Mack will shore up what
should be a slightly above average offensive line, and Sanu presents a very interesting
situation for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Sanu has some extremely
valuable versatility; he can run the ball, catch the ball, and throw the ball. In
Shanahan’s versatile offense, this is a major beneficiary. Sanu could immediately
contribute for the offense next to star wide receiver Julio Jones. Oh crap, I haven’t
even mentioned Julio, have I? Jones is coming off a season in which he tied the
league lead for receptions (138) and led the league in receiving yards (1,871
which is second most all-time) and grabbed eight touchdowns. Spoon feed this man
the ball. I don’t believe there is too much else to be said.
The defense hopes to make strides in year two under head coach Dan
Quinn. Quinn comes from the Seattle Seahawks, who as we all know have had
dominant defenses. Quinn’s year one in Atlanta was disappointing to say the
least. 2014 first round pick Vic Beasley only grabbed 4 sacks, but that is
largely due to the fact that he was the only viable pass rusher on the team. The
recent addition of pass rusher Dwight Freeney as well as pass rusher Derrick
Shelby should be able to help him get more opportunities. The Falcons also
added linebacker Courtney Upshaw to help in run support. The former Baltimore
Raven stands atop a thin linebacking corps as the best of the bunch, and that
isn’t a very good thing considering how one-dimensional he is (as a Ravens fan,
I would know best). Rookie linebacker Deion Jones has the speed to be a
sideline-to-sideline player, but will his small stature hold up? The secondary
could be pretty solid in 2016, featuring underrated stud cornerback Desmond
Trufant and first round pick safety/linebacker Keanu Neal. Neal will play the “money
backer” role similar to Arizona’s Deone Bucannon. Overall, this team looks
pretty mediocre. Short of an offense renaissance and a defense shift to above
average, I can’t see any better than .500. Sorry, Atlanta. I don’t hate your
team, but I don’t see a very exciting 2016 season ahead of you.
Record Projection: 6-10
Carolina Panthers:
So close, no matter how far… Sorry, Metallica stuck in my head. It
does somewhat apply to the 2015 Carolina Panther’s season. Almost 16-0 in the
regular season. “Almost” a Super Bowl title (they got dominated, quite
frankly). But here’s the good news: this team remains largely intact to its
2015 form. The loss of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman will hurt more than the
media is making it out to be, but it is more than survivable. Let’s not forget
this is the best front seven in football captained by All-Pro linebacker Luke
Kuechly. The defensive line has names such as defensive tackles Kawaan Short and
Star Lotulelei as well as future Pro Bowler (write it down) pass rusher Kony
Ealy. Ealy put on a show in Super Bowl 50, racking up three sacks, an
interception, and forcing a fumble. Had the Panthers won the Super Bowl, he
would have run away with the MVP honors. Quite frankly, he was the best player
on the field that game. That was just his coming-out party, 2016 will be his
for the taking. Then the linebacking corps features Kuechly and fellow
linebacker Thomas Davis. Davis is one of the best linebackers in the game who
doesn’t get truly recognized for how good he is at 33 years old. Second-year pro
Shaq Thompson will look to make a bigger impact and undrafted free agent Jeremy
Cash (how did he go undrafted again?!) will also join in a part time role. Let’s
dive further.
Beyond the set in stone starters, the Panthers have depth. First round
pick defensive tackle Vernon Butler, a personal favorite of mine during the
process, is the third defensive tackle. His skill set is tremendous; he could
be a starter on numerous other teams. Yet, he will simply be a backup who comes
in to give guys like Short a break in the action. Linebacker A.J. Klein is also
a backup who could start on other NFL teams. Same situation for him as Butler. Other
names such as pass rushers Mario Addison, Paul Soliai, and Kyle Love are simply
backups. That’s just ridiculous. The secondary is the biggest weak link of the
team, and yet because of how good the front seven is we may see them succeed. Young
guys like safety Tre Boston and cornerback Bene Benwikere will be relied on to
be starters. The Panthers did spend three draft picks on cornerbacks James
Bradberry, Daryl Worley, and Zach Sanchez to help out as well. Overall, it
could/will be a bad secondary masked entirely by the league’s best front seven.
Then we have the offense. Cam Newton went college on the NFL last
season, and put up video game numbers. 3,837 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 636
rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns. It’s simply ridiculous. He did this
without stud wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (ACL tear), too. Newton gets back
Benjamin this year and matches him with second-year wide receiver Devin
Funchess as well as Tedd Ginn and Corey “Philly” Brown. Add in tight end Greg
Olsen and this offense will be just as dominant through the air. I question
their run game outside of Newton (as I do every year) with running back
Jonathan Stewart another year older. Now 29 years old, remains injury prone
with no worthy backup. I do like running back Cameron Artis-Payne, but I want
to see more out of him in 2016. All around, this team looks good. Damn good. I expect
big things out of them. Behind head coach Ron Rivera, this team could wind up
right back in the Super Bowl. Watch out, NFL.
Record Projection: 13-3
New Orleans Saints:
You won’t find a bigger “hater” of the Saints this season than
right here on 4th Down and One. I am sorry Saints fans, I don’t hate
your team… Well, I kind of do. But that doesn’t mean I am not a fan of them or
that I hope you lose. In fact, the only reason I would want them to lose is so
they can get a better draft pick for 2017 and get better for the future. Now that
that’s out of the way, this roster is depleted, old, and headed nowhere any
time soon. Let’s start by looking at a 37 Drew Brees who has been out of his
mind amazing throughout his 15 year career. However, by the end of last season
we saw Brees start to look his age. Similar to how quarterback Peyton Manning looked
at the end of 2014, Manning fell off a cliff in 2015. I don’t expect Brees’s
numbers to dip as much as Manning’s did in 2015, but I could see him start to
slip…
Deeper into the New Orleans offense shows me a solid cast of wide
receivers, running back Mark Ingram, and a solid offensive line. Starting with
Ingram, when healthy he is one of the most versatile and dynamic running back
in the NFL. The only problem is Ingram has never played a full season since
2012 and that’s the only time he accomplished that feat in his five-year career.
I love Ingram to pieces, I really hope this is the year he stays healthy. Looking
at the wide receiving corps, you see Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, rookie
Michael Thomas, and Brandon Coleman. Cooks is the established WR1 with a great
skill set and big time speed. Thomas has major upside and was my top ranked
wide receiver entering the 2016 draft. Snead and Coleman are both former
undrafted free agents who have proven their worth in this offense. Free agent
signee tight end Coby Fleener presents some interesting upside (regardless of
my disbelief in him) for the Saints offense. Many pundits, and this is beyond
silly, believe he can become Jimmy Graham esc. But this is an argument for
another time. The offensive line, captained by center Max Unger, features
offensive tackle Terron Armstead and offensive guard Andrus Peat. Those three
should be enough to provide solid protection for Brees, so long as the right
side of the line holds up…
And then we have the defense. BLEH. This unit looks to be the
worst in the NFL. There are some studs littered throughout, like safety Kenny
Vaccaro and defensive lineman Cam Jordan, but the rest of it looks rough. The Saints
added linebacker James Lauraintis and defensive tackle Nick Fairley via free
agency and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and safety Vonn Bell via the 2016 draft
to help stop the bleeding. Second-year pro linebacker Stephone Anthony looks to
continue his success and become one of the better linebackers in the league. Surprise
cornerback Delvin Breaux had a great season in 2015 and can hopefully continue
his success; especially because the rest of the starting corners look sketch. Second-year
pro cornerback P.J. Williams will see the field for the first time in his
career and veteran Keenan Lewis struggles to see the field at all due to
injuries. Safety Jairus Byrd has been more than underwhelming since signing his
big money contract back in 2014 due to injuries and lackluster play. All in
all, this team will lose a lot of games simply because this defense won’t stop
a nose bleed. If Ingram continues to not stay healthy and Brees begins
regressing, this team won’t be much fun to watch. At least you have the 2017
draft to look forward to, “Who Dat” Nation.
Record Projection: 4-12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
I swear, I bite on this team every season and they always let me
down. Whether it’s free agent spending or a great draft, I pick this team to go
9-7 or 10-6 and get a wildcard every year it seems. I’ve learned my lesson and
now after a relatively quiet offseason in Tampa Bay, I don’t know what to think
anymore. The Buccaneers are building a young and talented roster, however. Starting
with Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans. Between those two, the future
is very bright, as they could emerge as one of the NFL’s best quarterback-wide
receiver combos. Winston and Evans will be 22 and 23 years old respectively
when the season starts. The two have a lot of room to grow and matching them
together is going to be deadly. The defense is no slouch, either. Featuring the
likes of linebacker Lavonte David and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the
defense has playmakers with curious upside.
Behind Winston and Evans, the team possesses plenty of young
talent and veterans on offense. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson clearly lost a
step last season, but still provides plenty of talent and will remain reliable
as the teams number two receiver. Running back Doug Martin reemerged and hopes
to continue his dominance long than just one season. Meanwhile, back up running
back Charles Sims is becoming one of the league’s best change-of-pace running
backs. Not to mention, Sims’s pass catching ability is unrivaled. The tight end
group presents a weakness, as Cameron Brate is currently slated to be the
starter. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins has so much upside, but between
injuries and apparently looking underwhelming in training camp, we may never
see that talent unfold in the NFL. Behind Evans and Jackson there are no clear
locks for the next best wide receiver, which could present itself as a problem.
The offensive line will be average, with second-year pros offensive tackle Donovan
Smith and offensive guard Ali Marpet leading the charge. Rookie offensive
tackle Caleb Benenoch could also contribute in year one, and free agent signee
J.R. Sweezy will be relied on as a starting guard for the team. The offense
will be fine, the defense could be good or average. No in between.
Previously mention Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy will once again
be relied on the most for this defense. Two key rookies will contribute
immediately year one and it could make or break this defense. Pass rusher Noah
Spence and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves were the team’s top two picks in 2016
and are slated to be starters immediately. Their play will largely determine
the fate of the defense. The team also added defensive lineman Robert Ayers in
free agency to help provide a more consistent pass rush outside of McCoy. Linebacker
Daryl Smith was also added in free agency to shore up a linebacking corps that
also features second year pro Kwon Alexander. This secondary scares me. Relying
on rookie cornerbacks is never ideal, as cornerback is arguably the toughest
position to successfully translate into the NFL. Cornerback Alterraun Verner
has been a bag of mixed results since arriving in Tampa in 2014 and free agent
signee cornerback Brent Grimes had a down year in Miami and may be showing his
age at 33. The safeties strike fear into the hearts of no one, Brad McDougald,
Major Wright, and Chris Conte as the main contributors. The Buccaneers will be
an average team in 2016 and a .500 record is a step in the right direction. One
more year or smart offseason additions and good drafting should have this team
truly in the playoff hunt. This is a young team on the rise.
Record Projection: 8-8
Division Overview:
The NFC South will likely be lackluster again in 2016. There will
be plenty of bright spots moving forward and the passing of the torch from the
Saints to the Buccaneers will be one to monitor. All four of these teams could
easily push for 8-8 with likely good offenses, but their defenses will be their
downfall (outside of Carolina). The Buccaneers are a sleeper team for a reason;
their young talent could just all mesh perfectly and they could become a force.
But they are more than likely one or two years away. The Falcons will be
average with some upside of a record over .500. And we all know how I feel
about the Saints by now. Count the Panthers in as serious Super Bowl contenders
and the rest as pretenders.
NFC South Projected Standing:
1. Carolina Panthers: 13-3 (6-0 in division)
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (3-3 in division)
3. Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 (2-4 in division)
4. New Orleans Saints: 4-12 (1-5 in division)
Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on
twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.
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