Monday, June 20, 2016

NFL Long-Shots: Can Jamaal Charles be a 2,000 Rusher?

Jamaal Charles has been a stud in the NFL for many seasons, doing just about everything you can think of for the Chiefs offense. In his eight year career, Charles has accumulated 7,220 rushing yards and 42 touchdowns. Not the most impressive numbers, but Charles has also never had less than 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) in his eight year career. That is impressive in itself. Only one thing has held him back from true greatness: his health. Charles is coming off a 2015 season that saw it end just five games in due to an ACL tear in his right knee. In those five games, however, the Chief's running back racked up an impressive 364 yards rushing with four touchdowns. Looking towards the 2016 season, expectations should be tempered for the 29 year-old back. Asking for 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns seems realistic for someone of his caliber. But why not stretch the imagination? Can Jamaal Charles rush for 2,000 yards this season?

It’s certainly a bold claim, and not one I’m willing to hang my hat on. The 2,000-Yard Rusher’s Club is a small and talented group, featuring three Hall of Famers (OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, and Barry Sanders), two future Hall of Famers (Terrell Davis and Adrian Peterson), and two studs (Chris Johnson and Jamal Lewis). To put Charles among those ranks would certainly help his Hall of Fame case, but that milestone has been accomplished just seven times since 1973. We also mentioned how Charles is coming off an ACL injury, another obstacle for him to cross. All this in mind, it’s not impossible for Charles to accomplish. After all, his talent and track record shows he has the potential to at least challenge that mark. Let’s dive into why this could happen:


His Career YPC

As previously mentioned, Jamaal Charles is pretty good at running the football. His career average YPC is an incredible 5.5, good enough for first place all-time. We also mentioned how his career low for a season was 5.0, which he has done twice. His best over an entire season (excluding his 6.9 over two games in 2011) was a whopping 6.4 in 2010. He rushed for 1,467 yards that year through 16 games. Those stats are absolutely ridiculous. Comparing them to the 2,000-Yard Rusher’s Club, Charles stacks up well. The lowest YPC from those seasons was 5.1 by Terrell Davis. That’s a mark that Charles can reach no problem. Charles is known for his break-away speed and ability to simply beat defenders to the edge. Charles is also known for his ankle-breaking jukes, just ask his former teammate Sanders Commings. His moves may not be as good as when he was younger and had less wear-and-tear, but I would imagine he can still make defenders look silly in the open field.


The Chiefs’ Offensive System

If there is one thing Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid loves to do, it’s run the football. Reid also employs the West-Coast offense that allows for a quick-striking passing offense. Captained by quarterback Alex Smith, the Chiefs offense gets the job done through the air, but the team has definitely relied on their above-average run game to win close games. Thankfully, Charles has fit into Reid’s system seamlessly. His best season overall came in 2013. Charles rushed for 1,287 yards with 12 touchdowns (5.0 YPC) and also caught 70 passes for 693 yards and seven touchdowns. That was Reid’s first season in Kansas City. With Smith at quarterback, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and tight end Travis Kelce, this Chiefs’ squad has just enough fire power to take some of the pressure off Charles, but still to the point that he is the main weapon of the offense.


History

In 2011, Jamaal Charles was coming off a season in which he rushed for over 1,400 yards and averaged 6.4 YPC over the entire 2010 season. Two games into the 2011 season, Charles was off to another good start before he tore his ACL. He would miss the remainder of the season. The 2012 season would serve as Jamaal Charles’ resurgence to the NFL. He wound up grabbing a career best 1,509 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and five touchdowns.

In 2015, Jamaal Charles was coming off a season in which he rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged 5.0 YPC over the course of 15 games. Five games into the 2015 season, Charles was off to another good start before he tore his ACL. He would miss the remainder of the season… You fill in the rest.

History often serves as a fun thing to hang your hat on. There are no guarantees, but if you are right you always love the saying, “history repeats itself”. I’m not the biggest believer when it comes to this saying, but I do realize it is sometimes true. ACL tears are not the death sentences for running backs that they use to be. Charles has shown he can rebound from it no problem. He also tore it early enough in the season that he should be nearly 100% healthy for the start of 2016. A healthy Charles is as dangerous a running back in the NFL as you’ll find.



Bringing it all together, the odds are stacked against Jamaal Charles to grab 2,000 rushing yards. Charles returns to an offense that has plenty of talent in the back field to keep him fresh as well as a passing attack that should take a step forward this season. But on the other side, the Chiefs’ offensive line got an upgrade at right tackle in Mitchell Schwartz and a defense that won’t allow too many big leads for the opposing team. That will lead to more rushing opportunities for Charles.

For what it’s worth, Charles could be facing a similar situation to the one Adrian Peterson faced going into the 2012 season. Both coming off ACL tears (Peterson’s was much later in the season than Charles’), both have/had offenses that were potent enough to do the job (Vikings featured Kyle Rudolph and Percy Harvin), and both were featured backs with all the talent in the world. Important note: Adrian Peterson is a freak, and I am not saying Charles = AD. All I am saying is their situations are similar and as we mentioned earlier, “history repeats itself”.

2,000 rushing yards is an incredibly difficult task, especially in today’s modern era were passing offenses dominate. Coming off a big knee injury certainly wouldn’t help anyone to accomplish this task. But Jamaal Charles isn’t just your average running back. Jamaal Charles isn’t some running back who can’t do it all. Jamaal Charles is one of the best running backs in the NFL. If he plays 16 games healthy, expect him to at least challenge for the legendary 2,000-yard mark.


Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Articles available every Friday. Thank you for the read.

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