Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every
team in the NFL, division-by division. This week covers the AFC East.
The AFC East has long been dominated by the New England Patriots
with guest performances by the rest of the division to help make it appear to
be a decent division. The reality is, this is still New England’s division to
lose. The rest of the division really is personal preference and opinion based.
Some love the Miami Dolphins to finish second thanks to rookie head coach Adam
Gase and an opportunistic defense. Others take the Buffalo Bills, who seem to
have a good roster doomed by inconsistent coaching. And finally are the New
York Jets, who without a quarterback could be doomed to a season with tons of
talent, but lacking at the most important position. Ahead is a detailed
analysis of these four teams and record projections based off of these
opinions.
Buffalo Bills:
The Buffalo Bills enter a make-or-break season under head coach
Rex Ryan. Ryan is only entering his second year as the Bills head coach, but
after a mediocre first season for a Bills team that had playoff expectations,
owner Terrence Pegula has informed Ryan as well as general manager Doug Whaley
that if they fail to reach the post season, they will both be terminated. Given
Rex Ryan’s track record, this could prove to be a daunting task regardless of a
talented roster. No pressure.
This Bills team has excess talent in some areas such as running
back and pass rushers but also has roster holes such as the right side of the
offensive line. The offense should click, so long as Tyrod Taylor can remain
healthy. Taylor showed plenty of promise last season, tossing 3,035 yards and
20 touchdowns while completing 63.7% of his passes in 14 games. He also managed
to rush for 568 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. While
the Bills organization isn’t sold on Taylor, you can put me in the camp that
does. Just in case, the Bills spent a fourth round pick on former Ohio State
quarterback Cardale Jones as a solid back-up plan. Whoever is throwing the
football, they can count on third-year wide receiver Sammy Watkins to make
plays all over the field.
The strength of this team lies in Watkins, defensive tackle
Marcell Dareus, and offensive tackle Cordy Glenn. If these three stay healthy,
you can count of Pro Bowl appearances out of the three. Other key performers
include offensive guard Richie Incognito, running back LeSean McCoy, corner backs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, and pass rusher Jerry Hughes. Rookie impacts can be expected from first and second round picks
Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland respectively.
All in all, this team will either click and be a playoff contender
or fall apart and be looking at a top 15 draft pick. Count me in as one of
those analysts that sees the Bills underachieving. Not because of the talent of
this roster, but because of the coaching staff.
Record Projection: 7-9
Miami Dolphins:
Rookie head coach Adam Gase will take over a team that features
Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and a stable of wide receivers ready to take off
in his offense. Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and rookie Leonte
Carroo look to be the main pass catchers for this offense, as well as tight end
Jordan Cameron (should he remain healthy for 16 games). The biggest question
mark remains at running back, where Jay Ajayi looks to be the starter. He
looked explosive at times last season, but also only managed 3.8 yards per
carry as a part time contributor. If the offensive line can find some
stability, this could be a fun and interesting offense to monitor in 2016.
The biggest problem for this team lies in the defense. Though the
names Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, and Mario Williams strike fear into the
hearts of quarterbacks, they are all ages 29, 34, and 31 respectively and won’t
be as effective as they were 3 years ago. I am a huge Cameron Wake fan, but
coming off an Achilles tear at his age and performing at a high level is asking
a lot. Suh and Williams also were somewhat ineffective last year and may
continue to be streaky at this point in their careers. The rest of the defense
gives me a massive question mark. Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell were very
average in due part to injuries and inconsistent play respectively during the
time with the Philadelphia Eagles last season. The one consistent presence will
be Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones, who is quietly a top five safety in the
league.
Rookie offensive tackle and first round pick Laremy Tunsil will be
relied on early all over the offensive line, more than likely appearing as a
guard to start his career, to provide a clean pocket for Tannehill. Rookies
Xavien Howard, Kenyon Drake, and Leonte Carroo will be asked to do a lot year
one. Howard will be forced into a starting role, Drake will more than likely be
the primary return man as well as a change-of-pace running back, and Carroo could
very well end up as the team’s third receiver.
It’s fair to expect a team with plenty of talent to shoot for a
.500 record, but the teams holes could prove costly, especially if the injury
bug strikes this team. Relying on a lot of rookies to perform could also either
make or break their season. I may not be huge on the Dolphins this season, but
I do like the moves they made for the future.
Record Projection: 5-11
New England Patriots:
Where to begin with this team? A perennial Super Bowl contender
with arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, a future first ballot
hall of fame head coach, the best tight end in the NFL, solid production from
the wide receiver and running back corps, and a defense that could make big
strides this season. Sound about right?
The Patriots top to bottom have a roster that will run away with
the division and compete with the rest of the AFC for the top seed in the
playoffs. There’s really only one big flaw with the team: the offensive line.
Tom Brady was sacked an astonishing 38 times last season. Not to mention in the
AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos, Brady was hit an incredible
20 times in that one game. That was more than any quarterback had been hit in
any game in the 2015 season (per Pro Football Talk). The offensive line will return starters
Nate Solder at left tackle and Bryan Stork at center. Still, this unit could
prove to be the weak link of the team.
The Patriots also shipped out Pro Bowl pass rusher Chandler Jones
in the offseason to the Arizona Cardinals. Jones racked up an impressive 36
sacks in just four seasons with the club. His presence will surely be missed on
the defensive side of the ball. The strength of the team will be the line
backing core featuring Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. The two missed four
games each last season, but their presence when on the field together cannot be
understated. Arguably the best linebacker duo in the NFL, Hightower and Collins
will command this defense. Safety Devin McCourty will also provide veteran
leadership and ball-hawking skills in the secondary with lots of young talent.
All that on defense, and a dominant offense that doesn’t need much said about
it. Brady to Gronk. That’s all you need to know.
A division title and probably a top two seed in the playoffs in is
to be expected, and that is simply unreal. Brady and Bill Belichick will once
again provide a dominant team with the necessary ammo to shoot for a fifth
Super Bowl championship since 2002. What more could the New England area ask
for?
Record Projection: 12-4
New York Jets:
The Jets just barely missed the post season last year, despite an
impressive 10-6 record following up their 4-12 performance in 2014. Now second-year
head coach Todd Bowles will once again provide a dominant defense, headlined by
cornerback Darrelle Revis and defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The team
also brings back defensive linemen Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams,
linebacker David Harris, and safety Calvin Pryor to what should once again be
one of the NFL’s top defensive units. The offense is loaded with veterans who
appear to have a lot left in the tank in running back Matt Forte and wide
receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The biggest question mark is at the
most important position: quarterback.
Last year’s starter Ryan Fitzpatrick remains unsigned after having
a career year with the Jets. The roster currently hosts former second round
pick Geno Smith, second-year pro Bryce Petty, and rookie Christian Hackenberg.
While I myself am high on Hackenberg, he needs a lot of grooming. None of those
options should impress Jets fans, either. Even if the team were to resign
Fitzpatrick, he is no guarantee to repeat what he did last season. Let’s look
at Fitzpatrick’s last big contract: following a 2010 season in which he threw
23 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, the Buffalo Bills signed Fitzpatrick to a six-year
$59 million deal. He followed that up with a 24 touchdown to 23 interception
season in 2011. He remained with the team just one more season after that
before being cut by Buffalo. Fitzpatrick had the greatest season for a
quarterback in the Jets history, but he wants top dollar to come back to the
team. At 33 years old and given his history, the Jets have plenty of reason to
be cautious. Regardless, the quarterback situation is a mess and could possibly
doom a very talented roster.
The defense will once again be the strength of this team. Despite
rumors the Jets are shopping Pro Bowl defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson,
their other two defensive linemen in Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson
are also borderline dominant options. Darrelle Revis is also a future hall of
famer at cornerback and has shown no signs of slowing down. The Jets also spent
a first round pick on versatile linebacker Darron Lee to help man the line
backing corps. Rookie outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins should also help
provide pass rushing skills from the line backing corps; something the Jets
have been lacking in recent years. The loss of nose tackle Damon Harrison will
hurt, but the Jets defense should continue to roll without him.
All in all, this roster will either compete for the playoffs or be
looking at a top ten draft pick for 2017. I personally believe in this roster
to make it by without strong quarterbacking, but we also saw last year that
this team will only go as far as their quarterbacks will take them. Look for
this team to miss expectations and have a down year.
Record Projection: 6-10
Division Overview:
The AFC East is dominated by the New England Patriots, no debate.
The rest of the division is a mystery, as all three of these teams could either
shoot for a .500 record or falter and look lost all season. I personally don’t
believe in this division to go far and also find it one of the weaker divisions
in football. However, like most analysts I am often wrong and I like to be
wrong. So prove me wrong AFC East. I may not believe in your division, but I do
believe in the tremendous upside of all your teams.
AFC East Projected Standings:
1. New England Patriots- 12-4 (6-0 in division)
2. Buffalo Bills- 7-9 (2-4 in division)
3. New York Jets- 6-10 (3-3 in division)
4. Miami Dolphins- 5-11 (1-5 in division)
Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on
twitter @RichieBradz36. Articles available every Friday. Thank you for the
read.
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