Dissecting the NFL: NFC South

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the NFC South.

And then there was one. As we wrap up our Dissecting the NFL series, we take a look at a division with plenty of talent, just not enough to truly threaten the NFC – short of Carolina. The Panthers have asserted themselves as the best of the best in the NFL following their impressive 15-1 regular season record in 2015. They were a Super Bowl championship away from being one of the most dominant teams in NFL history. The rest of the division looks like great offenses with average at best defenses. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a lot of people’s sleeper team for the playoffs this year due to the continued progression of quarterback Jameis Winston. The Atlanta Falcons look to rebound from a down-year from quarterback Matt Ryan. And the New Orleans Saints will attempt to get future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees to the big game one last time as he enters the twilight of his career. As for the Panthers, reigning MVP quarterback Cam Newton will lead the charge once again for what should be one of the best offenses in the NFL. Newton will be matched with what should be one of the best defenses in the NFL. Now for one last time this year, let’s dive into analysis with my opinions that I am sure you all hate.

Atlanta Falcons:

The Falcons weren’t expected to do very much last season, and then they jumped out to a surprising 5-0 start to the season. Right as everyone was starting to respect the Falcons (and also seriously question how they did it), they wound up dropping eight of their last 11 games. How on earth did they do that? The Falcons talent should be able to be a top 12 offense in total yards with previously mention Matt Ryan at the helm. However, last season was not what we were used to seeing out of Ryan. Ryan only tossed 21 touchdowns last season with a whopping 16 interceptions and eight fumbles. Ryan needs to right the ship and cut down on the turnovers in 2016 if the Falcons want any shot at the post season. As for the rest of the team, running back Devonta Freeman enjoyed a career year in 2015. Freeman rushed for 1,056 yards with 11 touchdowns plus 73 receptions for 578 receiving yards and three more touchdowns. That looks fantastic on paper, but look closer and you notice his numbers are extremely deceiving. According to Matt Camp’s article (via Bleacher Report), Freeman rushed for 100 yards in four of the first eight weeks, and then had only two games of 70+ yards the rest of the season. He also scored nine of his 11 touchdowns over the first nine games. Freeman needs to be way more consistent, more so than Ryan, for this team to succeed.

That good news is the Falcons offense should be able to be more consistent than in 2015. For starters, second-year pro running back Tevin Coleman appears pretty healthy (aside from a recently reported “minor” foot injury (via AJC.com). Coleman, when healthy in 2015, appeared to be just as productive as Freeman. Should Freeman start off cold or continue his late season struggles, Coleman should be able to step in seamlessly for the Falcons. The Falcons also added center Alex Mack and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Mack will shore up what should be a slightly above average offensive line, and Sanu presents a very interesting situation for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Sanu has some extremely valuable versatility; he can run the ball, catch the ball, and throw the ball. In Shanahan’s versatile offense, this is a major beneficiary. Sanu could immediately contribute for the offense next to star wide receiver Julio Jones. Oh crap, I haven’t even mentioned Julio, have I? Jones is coming off a season in which he tied the league lead for receptions (138) and led the league in receiving yards (1,871 which is second most all-time) and grabbed eight touchdowns. Spoon feed this man the ball. I don’t believe there is too much else to be said.

The defense hopes to make strides in year two under head coach Dan Quinn. Quinn comes from the Seattle Seahawks, who as we all know have had dominant defenses. Quinn’s year one in Atlanta was disappointing to say the least. 2014 first round pick Vic Beasley only grabbed 4 sacks, but that is largely due to the fact that he was the only viable pass rusher on the team. The recent addition of pass rusher Dwight Freeney as well as pass rusher Derrick Shelby should be able to help him get more opportunities. The Falcons also added linebacker Courtney Upshaw to help in run support. The former Baltimore Raven stands atop a thin linebacking corps as the best of the bunch, and that isn’t a very good thing considering how one-dimensional he is (as a Ravens fan, I would know best). Rookie linebacker Deion Jones has the speed to be a sideline-to-sideline player, but will his small stature hold up? The secondary could be pretty solid in 2016, featuring underrated stud cornerback Desmond Trufant and first round pick safety/linebacker Keanu Neal. Neal will play the “money backer” role similar to Arizona’s Deone Bucannon. Overall, this team looks pretty mediocre. Short of an offense renaissance and a defense shift to above average, I can’t see any better than .500. Sorry, Atlanta. I don’t hate your team, but I don’t see a very exciting 2016 season ahead of you.

Record Projection: 6-10

Carolina Panthers:

So close, no matter how far… Sorry, Metallica stuck in my head. It does somewhat apply to the 2015 Carolina Panther’s season. Almost 16-0 in the regular season. “Almost” a Super Bowl title (they got dominated, quite frankly). But here’s the good news: this team remains largely intact to its 2015 form. The loss of All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman will hurt more than the media is making it out to be, but it is more than survivable. Let’s not forget this is the best front seven in football captained by All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly. The defensive line has names such as defensive tackles Kawaan Short and Star Lotulelei as well as future Pro Bowler (write it down) pass rusher Kony Ealy. Ealy put on a show in Super Bowl 50, racking up three sacks, an interception, and forcing a fumble. Had the Panthers won the Super Bowl, he would have run away with the MVP honors. Quite frankly, he was the best player on the field that game. That was just his coming-out party, 2016 will be his for the taking. Then the linebacking corps features Kuechly and fellow linebacker Thomas Davis. Davis is one of the best linebackers in the game who doesn’t get truly recognized for how good he is at 33 years old. Second-year pro Shaq Thompson will look to make a bigger impact and undrafted free agent Jeremy Cash (how did he go undrafted again?!) will also join in a part time role. Let’s dive further.

Beyond the set in stone starters, the Panthers have depth. First round pick defensive tackle Vernon Butler, a personal favorite of mine during the process, is the third defensive tackle. His skill set is tremendous; he could be a starter on numerous other teams. Yet, he will simply be a backup who comes in to give guys like Short a break in the action. Linebacker A.J. Klein is also a backup who could start on other NFL teams. Same situation for him as Butler. Other names such as pass rushers Mario Addison, Paul Soliai, and Kyle Love are simply backups. That’s just ridiculous. The secondary is the biggest weak link of the team, and yet because of how good the front seven is we may see them succeed. Young guys like safety Tre Boston and cornerback Bene Benwikere will be relied on to be starters. The Panthers did spend three draft picks on cornerbacks James Bradberry, Daryl Worley, and Zach Sanchez to help out as well. Overall, it could/will be a bad secondary masked entirely by the league’s best front seven.

Then we have the offense. Cam Newton went college on the NFL last season, and put up video game numbers. 3,837 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 636 rushing yards, 10 rushing touchdowns. It’s simply ridiculous. He did this without stud wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin (ACL tear), too. Newton gets back Benjamin this year and matches him with second-year wide receiver Devin Funchess as well as Tedd Ginn and Corey “Philly” Brown. Add in tight end Greg Olsen and this offense will be just as dominant through the air. I question their run game outside of Newton (as I do every year) with running back Jonathan Stewart another year older. Now 29 years old, remains injury prone with no worthy backup. I do like running back Cameron Artis-Payne, but I want to see more out of him in 2016. All around, this team looks good. Damn good. I expect big things out of them. Behind head coach Ron Rivera, this team could wind up right back in the Super Bowl. Watch out, NFL.

Record Projection: 13-3

New Orleans Saints:

You won’t find a bigger “hater” of the Saints this season than right here on 4^th Down and One. I am sorry Saints fans, I don’t hate your team… Well, I kind of do. But that doesn’t mean I am not a fan of them or that I hope you lose. In fact, the only reason I would want them to lose is so they can get a better draft pick for 2017 and get better for the future. Now that that’s out of the way, this roster is depleted, old, and headed nowhere any time soon. Let’s start by looking at a 37 Drew Brees who has been out of his mind amazing throughout his 15 year career. However, by the end of last season we saw Brees start to look his age. Similar to how quarterback Peyton Manning looked at the end of 2014, Manning fell off a cliff in 2015. I don’t expect Brees’s numbers to dip as much as Manning’s did in 2015, but I could see him start to slip…

Deeper into the New Orleans offense shows me a solid cast of wide receivers, running back Mark Ingram, and a solid offensive line. Starting with Ingram, when healthy he is one of the most versatile and dynamic running back in the NFL. The only problem is Ingram has never played a full season since 2012 and that’s the only time he accomplished that feat in his five-year career. I love Ingram to pieces, I really hope this is the year he stays healthy. Looking at the wide receiving corps, you see Brandin Cooks, Willie Snead, rookie Michael Thomas, and Brandon Coleman. Cooks is the established WR1 with a great skill set and big time speed. Thomas has major upside and was my top ranked wide receiver entering the 2016 draft. Snead and Coleman are both former undrafted free agents who have proven their worth in this offense. Free agent signee tight end Coby Fleener presents some interesting upside (regardless of my disbelief in him) for the Saints offense. Many pundits, and this is beyond silly, believe he can become Jimmy Graham esc. But this is an argument for another time. The offensive line, captained by center Max Unger, features offensive tackle Terron Armstead and offensive guard Andrus Peat. Those three should be enough to provide solid protection for Brees, so long as the right side of the line holds up…

And then we have the defense. BLEH. This unit looks to be the worst in the NFL. There are some studs littered throughout, like safety Kenny Vaccaro and defensive lineman Cam Jordan, but the rest of it looks rough. The Saints added linebacker James Lauraintis and defensive tackle Nick Fairley via free agency and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and safety Vonn Bell via the 2016 draft to help stop the bleeding. Second-year pro linebacker Stephone Anthony looks to continue his success and become one of the better linebackers in the league. Surprise cornerback Delvin Breaux had a great season in 2015 and can hopefully continue his success; especially because the rest of the starting corners look sketch. Second-year pro cornerback P.J. Williams will see the field for the first time in his career and veteran Keenan Lewis struggles to see the field at all due to injuries. Safety Jairus Byrd has been more than underwhelming since signing his big money contract back in 2014 due to injuries and lackluster play. All in all, this team will lose a lot of games simply because this defense won’t stop a nose bleed. If Ingram continues to not stay healthy and Brees begins regressing, this team won’t be much fun to watch. At least you have the 2017 draft to look forward to, “Who Dat” Nation.

Record Projection: 4-12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

I swear, I bite on this team every season and they always let me down. Whether it’s free agent spending or a great draft, I pick this team to go 9-7 or 10-6 and get a wildcard every year it seems. I’ve learned my lesson and now after a relatively quiet offseason in Tampa Bay, I don’t know what to think anymore. The Buccaneers are building a young and talented roster, however. Starting with Jameis Winston and wide receiver Mike Evans. Between those two, the future is very bright, as they could emerge as one of the NFL’s best quarterback-wide receiver combos. Winston and Evans will be 22 and 23 years old respectively when the season starts. The two have a lot of room to grow and matching them together is going to be deadly. The defense is no slouch, either. Featuring the likes of linebacker Lavonte David and defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, the defense has playmakers with curious upside.

Behind Winston and Evans, the team possesses plenty of young talent and veterans on offense. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson clearly lost a step last season, but still provides plenty of talent and will remain reliable as the teams number two receiver. Running back Doug Martin reemerged and hopes to continue his dominance long than just one season. Meanwhile, back up running back Charles Sims is becoming one of the league’s best change-of-pace running backs. Not to mention, Sims’s pass catching ability is unrivaled. The tight end group presents a weakness, as Cameron Brate is currently slated to be the starter. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins has so much upside, but between injuries and apparently looking underwhelming in training camp, we may never see that talent unfold in the NFL. Behind Evans and Jackson there are no clear locks for the next best wide receiver, which could present itself as a problem. The offensive line will be average, with second-year pros offensive tackle Donovan Smith and offensive guard Ali Marpet leading the charge. Rookie offensive tackle Caleb Benenoch could also contribute in year one, and free agent signee J.R. Sweezy will be relied on as a starting guard for the team. The offense will be fine, the defense could be good or average. No in between.

Previously mention Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy will once again be relied on the most for this defense. Two key rookies will contribute immediately year one and it could make or break this defense. Pass rusher Noah Spence and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves were the team’s top two picks in 2016 and are slated to be starters immediately. Their play will largely determine the fate of the defense. The team also added defensive lineman Robert Ayers in free agency to help provide a more consistent pass rush outside of McCoy. Linebacker Daryl Smith was also added in free agency to shore up a linebacking corps that also features second year pro Kwon Alexander. This secondary scares me. Relying on rookie cornerbacks is never ideal, as cornerback is arguably the toughest position to successfully translate into the NFL. Cornerback Alterraun Verner has been a bag of mixed results since arriving in Tampa in 2014 and free agent signee cornerback Brent Grimes had a down year in Miami and may be showing his age at 33. The safeties strike fear into the hearts of no one, Brad McDougald, Major Wright, and Chris Conte as the main contributors. The Buccaneers will be an average team in 2016 and a .500 record is a step in the right direction. One more year or smart offseason additions and good drafting should have this team truly in the playoff hunt. This is a young team on the rise.

Record Projection: 8-8

Division Overview:

The NFC South will likely be lackluster again in 2016. There will be plenty of bright spots moving forward and the passing of the torch from the Saints to the Buccaneers will be one to monitor. All four of these teams could easily push for 8-8 with likely good offenses, but their defenses will be their downfall (outside of Carolina). The Buccaneers are a sleeper team for a reason; their young talent could just all mesh perfectly and they could become a force. But they are more than likely one or two years away. The Falcons will be average with some upside of a record over .500. And we all know how I feel about the Saints by now. Count the Panthers in as serious Super Bowl contenders and the rest as pretenders.

NFC South Projected Standing:

1. Carolina Panthers: 13-3 (6-0 in division)

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8-8 (3-3 in division)

3. Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 (2-4 in division)

4. New Orleans Saints: 4-12 (1-5 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.

Dissecting the NFL: AFC South

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the AFC South.

As we enter the final division of each conference, we get that much closer to preseason! Isn't that an exciting thought? The AFC South is a division on the rise. This division looks a lot like the NFC West did a few short years ago. Now it is the best division in football. The AFC South has been the worst division in the NFL for years. The Houston Texans were the annual cellar team. The Indianapolis Colts were the only viable team (evident by their nine division titles since 2003). The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans have been the biggest jokes of the NFL since the 2010s. This will all change within the next two seasons and maybe even this season we could see all four teams finish with a .500 record. That’s how much stock I have invested into these teams. Two young and talented rosters and two teams with defensive lineman JJ Watt on one and quarterback Andrew Luck on the other makes for an interesting division. Let’s take a closer look at what would appear to be a crazy statement.

Houston Texans:

Your reigning AFC South champs also bring back the reigning defensive player of the year in JJ Watt. That’s a good start. After making the playoffs in 2016, the Texans were shut out at home by the Kansas City Chiefs, 30-0. That’s about as embarrassing as it gets. Head coach Bill O’Brien and General Manager Rick Smith responded by attacking their offense in the offseason. The draft saw Smith bring in wide receivers Will Fuller and Braxton Miller in the first and third rounds respectively as well as center Nick Martin in round two and running back Tyler Ervin in round four. Then in free agency, the Texans made massive splashes by signing quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. Osweiler was signed to a four-year $72 million contract to become the team’s franchise quarterback. Standing at 6’7” and with massive arm strength, Osweiler has the tools needed to be a franchise quarterback. However, in 2015 despite starting seven games Osweiler delivered average results. This came after sitting three years and learning behind greats like Peyton Manning and John Elway. The team is hopeful Bill O’Brien can get the most out of him. Meanwhile, Lamar Miller is coming off a season in which he was arguably the most explosive runner in the NFL despite his criminal under usage in Miami. Miller will join a team that has finished first and fifth in rush attempts in two seasons under Bill O’Brien. This could be exactly what they needed.

Miller and Osweiler will join wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins to form what could potentially be a top five trio in the NFL. Hopkins is coming off a season in which he grabbed 111 receptions for 1,521 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns despite having the likes of Ryan Mallet, Brian Hoyer, and Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball. If Osweiler can be even average, Hopkins can replicate what he did last season. Second-year wide receiver Jaelen Strong also has the upside to be a tremendous number two receiver if he can get his head straight and see the field more often. Add in the previously mentioned rookies and veteran Cecil Shorts and this wide receiving corps is deep and talented. It’s too bad there is virtually no quality tight ends on this team. The likely starter is between CJ Fiedorowicz (say that five times fast) and Ryan Griffin. That doesn’t build much hope there. Thankfully, Lamar Miller is also a talented receiver and should help a ton in the passing game as well. Behind an offensive line featuring offensive tackles Duane Brown and Derek Newton, the offense should be able to put up more than zero points in their next playoff appearance (one can only hope).

Finally, a defense captained by JJ Watt should be a good one. Despite recent reports JJ Watt needed offseason back surgery (via ESPN), Watt believes he will be O.K. to start week one of the regular season. Watt has never missed a regular season game in his career and it’s hard to go against him considering what he’s done. The rest of this defense is stellar. Outside linebackers Whitney Mercilus (seriously, such an awesome last name for a pass rusher) and Jadeveon Clowney will make Sunday’s miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Let’s get one thing straight right now: Clowney, when fully healthy, is a beast. If he plays 16 games this year, I think he will grab double digit sacks. He is an amazing edge setter against the run and he can pressure the quarterback with ease. He is NOT a bust. He is about to explode this year. Just watch. Now that that is settled, linebackers Brian Cushing and Benardrick McKinney form a great one-two punch. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork, despite his age and decline in play, will round put a fantastic front seven. Cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson, Kevin Johnson, and AJ Bouye make a talented and deep group. Safety is a slight weakness, but plenty of names (Kurtis Drummond, Andre Hal, and Antonio Allen to name a few) will make a decent rotation. All in all, this Texans team should take the division this year while the other three teams continue towards the future. If everything clicks, they could make a deep post season run. Don’t sleep on the Texans as a potential Super Bowl contender. The hype is real.

Record Projection: 10-6

Indianapolis Colts:

The Colts just two seasons ago were playing in the AFC Championship game and appeared to have quite a bright future ahead of themselves despite their blowout loss to the New England Patriots. Since the Colts drafted Andrew Luck first overall in 2012, the Colts had made the playoffs three straight years and gotten one game deeper into the playoffs every year. That meant 2015 had massive expectations. Following that trend, they Colts should have advanced to the Super Bowl. Instead, the fell flat on their faces and flopped to an 8-8 record. The failure can be attributed to many things; the biggest reason was the failure to properly protect Andrew Luck. According to SB Nation, Luck has been knocked down (sacks and hits) more than any other quarterback since he joined the league. In sacks alone, he was sacked 15 times in just seven games in 2015 before he hit the injured reserve due to a lacerated kidney. The Colts need to keep their quarterback up if they want to compete. Clearly they got the message, spending four of their eight 2016 draft picks on offensive linemen. First round pick center Ryan Kelly has some tremendous upside and could immediately become a top eight center in the league (I expect him to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie).

The passing offense will have no trouble putting up points. Between wide receivers TY Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Phillip Dorsett plus tight end Dwayne Allen, Luck has plenty of weapons to throw to. The run game will be slightly suspect, with a 33-year old running back in Frank Gore being the head guy. They also don’t have the greatest depth in the world behind him (journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman are his primary backups). Behind an already suspect offensive line, the run game should finish in the bottom half of the league. Fun fact: the Colts haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Joseph Addai did it in 2007 (!!!). That’s a trend that will likely continue through this season. While Gore did manage 967 rushing yards last season, that was largely because Luck missed nine games. With Luck under center for 16 games and healthy, Gore should see more than that many yards in 2016. That would be a bad thing at all considering Gore is 33-years old!

This defense, in comparison to the offense, will have a hard time maintaining leads. The Colts as of now will roll out with eight key contributors on defense of at least age 30. That’s not ideal. The front seven should be decently stout with edge rushers Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik Walden (all at least age 30) attacking the quarterback. The defensive line features Arthur Jones (suspended the first four games) and Kendall Langford (both age 30) as well as rookie Hassan Ridgeway. Ridgeway is extremely raw but has tons of upside. Behind head coach and defensive mastermind Chuck Pagano, he could turn into a beastly defensive linemen in the next few years. The secondary has Pro Bowl cornerback Vontae Davis, who can easily shut down one half of the field. The rest of the cast is solid. Safety Mike Adams (35-years old) and fellow cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler should help round out what will be an average secondary. Rookie safety/cornerback TJ Green has tremendous upside and the ability to be an immediate impact player for the Colts. All in all, this team should lose and win plenty of shootouts. The team overall is simply too old and not talented enough to compete in the AFC let alone their own division. Look for another average year from the Colts in 2016. But good drafting and smart free agency signings could have this team back in the Super Bowl conversation quickly. With Andrew Luck at quarterback, anything is possible.

Record Projection: 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars:

DUVAL! A team on the rise, Jacksonville could finally see its first winning team since 2007. Head coach Gus Bradley and General Manager David Caldwell have slowly but surely taken a talent depleted roster and turned it into one of the NFL’s youngest and up-incoming teams. Unfortunately, the Jaguars may still be one year away and time may be up for Bradley and Caldwell after three years of building and losing. Hopefully that’s not the case, as I believe they are both perfect to take this team forward for the next five years. Even at just 5-11 last season, the Jaguars offense looked like it could compete with anyone. Quarterback Blake Bortles tossed 35 touchdowns last season thanks in part to the Allen Brothers (patent pending) in Allen Robinson (league high 14 touchdowns) and Allen Hurns (10 touchdowns). A young defense with mastermind Gus Bradley could also be a massive sleeping giant to become one of the league’s best defenses.

Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns are a dynamic three-piece. A healthy Julius Thomas at tight end could make them even scarier in the passing game. A two-headed beast in running backs TJ Yeldon and Chris Ivory could make this offense very well rounded. A high upside offensive line with pieces such as offensive guards Brandon Linder and AJ Cann and offensive tackle Kelvin Beachum could become a top 12 unit and give Bortles time to throw darts all day long. Put all of that potential together and this offense could wind up a top five unit in scrimmage yards. I fully expect the team to be in the top five for passing yards. If the run game can take a step forward, the talent is there for the Jaguars to run the table and score 25+ points a game. That should be the team’s biggest strength.

The Jaguars’ defense is young, loaded, and ready to make a name for itself. The defensive line is the deepest unit, featuring new free agent gem defensive lineman Malik Jackson as well as fellow defensive linemen Sen’Derrick Marks, Roy Miller, Tyson Alualu, and Jared Odrick. The defensive line also carries Dante Fowler and rookies Yannick Ngakoue and Sheldon Day. The Jaguars also added Bjoern Werner in free agency. Holy *explicit*! The linebacking corps features veteran Paul Posluszny and one of the youngest stars in the NFL in Telvin Smith. The secondary possesses upside with safeties John Cyprien and Tashaun Gipson. Cornerback will be an interesting competition with guys like Davon House, Dwayne Gratz, Prince Amukamara, and Aaron Colvin (suspended the first four games of the season). Oh, and I forgot to mention the Jaguars added cornerback Jalen Ramsey (my top prospect) and linebacker Myles Jack in the first two rounds of the 2016 draft. Both of them were viewed universally as top ten prospects. No big deal. If everything pans out, this defense could be a top 12 unit in yards allowed and the offense a top five unit in scrimmage yards. Unfortunately, this Jaguars team is too inexperienced and too much potential for me to give them anything better than 8-8. I love this team to pieces, but it may take one more year before we can talk about the playoffs.

Record Projection: 8-8

Tennessee Titans:

The Titans just made their future so much brighter thanks to the Jared Goff trade (see my previous article on the NFC West. The only real question I have for this team: is Mike Mularkey really the head coach who can get you to the next level? I don’t believe so as of writing this, but I have been wrong many times before and will be wrong countless more times to come. However as it stands, I love this team. The Titans do have their franchise quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the team invested in protecting him better this offseason via offensive tackle Jack Conklin in the first round of the 2016 draft. Mariota showed so much promise in his rookie season and I believe he can make massive steps forward in just his second year.

The Titans have invested heavily in the run game this offseason, as evident in their trade for running back DeMarco Murray and drafting Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry in round two of the 2016 draft. This fits what Mariota does well, as he is known as a mobile/scrambling quarterback. Expect all three of these men to grab 100 carries this season rushing. The team’s power run game will be what drives this offense, and I expect the team to finish in the top eight in the NFL in rushing yards. The passing game needs more weapons, but wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham can establish himself as the team’s true number one receiver this year. Matched with tight end Delanie Walker, Mariota has two go-to targets in the passing game. The rest of the depth isn’t anything to write home about, with names such as Harry Douglas, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Rishard Matthews, and newly signed Andre Johnson making up the teams wide receiver corps. Rookie wide receiver Tajae Sharp could turn out to be a good contributor if he can be developed properly. The offensive line could be an up-incoming unit, featuring offensive tackles Taylor Lewan and previously mentioned Jack Conklin. The offense should be decent enough to win close games, but if they get down early it will be hard for them to throw their way back into games.

The defense has some awesome names such as pass rusher Brian Orakpo, defensive lineman Jurrell Casey, and cornerback Jason McCourty. The rest of the defense is solid with some upside players. The defensive line is my favorite unit, with names such as Daquon Jones, Al Woods, Karl Klug, and rookie Austin Johnson. The unit could become one of the league’s better units in a couple seasons. Linebacker Wesley Woodyard had one of the most under-the-radar seasons in the league last year and should be a tackling machine once again in 2016. Pass rushers Derrick Morgan and rookie Kevin Dodd could also make big plays and Dodd could even be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. The team brought in safety Rashad Johnson in free agency to be a turnover machine in a secondary featuring safety Da’Norris Searcy and cornerbacks Perrish Cox, Brice McCain, Antwon Blake, and rookie Kalan Reed. Truth be told, this defense is a year away at the earliest and the offense needs more weapons in the passing game before it can reach its true potential. The Titans will be competitive in 2016, but more work is needed before this team can truly be labeled a “team on the rise”.

Record Projection: 6-10

Division Overview:

The AFC South with be a decent division in 2016. In 2017? Who knows. The sky is the limit. I like all four of these teams a lot, but odds are in 2016 the Texans should run away with this division. Young teams like the Jaguars and Titans will make this division very interesting and certainly anything is possible with Andrew Luck at quarterback, however. I look forward to watching this division and will be monitoring it very closely. The future is bright, AFC South teams.

AFC South Projected Standings:

1. Houston Texans: 10-6 (5-1 in division)

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 8-8 (3-3 in division)

3. Indianapolis Colts: 8-8 (2-4 in division)

4. Tennessee Titans: 6-10 (2-4 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.

Dissecting the NFL: NFC West

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the NFC West.

Ah, the NFC West... A division of champions and dominance. The NFC West holds seven Super Bowl rings and have sent a team to the NFC Championship game in each of the last four seasons via three different teams (Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, and the Seattle Seahawks). Even though we are still waiting on the Rams, now located in Los Angeles, to turn out a worth watching product (I say that meaning I want consistency) and the 49ers have somehow managed to destroy everything they had assembled two short seasons ago, we still have two major Super Bowl contenders. The Arizona Cardinals have assembled what could be the league’s top offense with a dominant defense. The Seattle Seahawks have assembled what could be the league’s top defense with a dominant offense. That head-to-head match-up will be amazing. And we get it twice a year! Thank you, football gods. Anyways, this division holds a rebuilding franchise, a team on the rise, and two Super Bowl contenders. Let’s take a closer look.

Arizona Cardinals:

Just a few seasons ago, the Arizona Cardinals looked like a complete mess across the roster. Then head coach Ken Whisenhunt and General Manager Rod Graves were given the boot and rookie head coach Bruce Arians and rookie General Manager Steve Keim were given said mess. Completely honest, I hated the hiring of Bruce Arians as the Cardinals head coach. I believed they needed to promote then defensive coordinator Ray Horton to become the head coach. I also believed Arians success was tied to great quarterbacks (Andrew Luck in Indianapolis and Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh). I never once considered that Arians was just a phenomenal quarterbacks coach and offensive guru. Mr. Arians, I am truly sorry and humbled. Coach Arians and GM Steve Keim have taken this team to heights no one could have even imagined. The acquisition of quarterback Carson Palmer rejuvenated this offense. Smart drafting (especially in round three, good lord…) by Keim has helped to form what is one of the deepest rosters in the NFL. Stars are littered throughout the roster in the forms of wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald, cornerback Patrick Peterson, safety/cornerback Tyrann Mathieu and so many others. It really isn’t fair when you start to really recognize the talent this squad possesses…

The strength of this team lies in its dynamic and diverse offense. Carson Palmer mans the helm and calls the shots at the line of scrimmage. Behind an above average offensive line featuring tackle Jared Veldheer and guard Mike Iupati on the left side, Palmer can stand tall and deliver strikes down the field. Palmer has no shortage of weapons at wide receiver, featuring future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald and young studs Michael Floyd and John Brown. Tight end is definitely the weak link of this team, but Darren Fells has some nice upside with a solid at best veteran in Jermaine Gresham. The stable of running back this team has is a three headed hydra. When Andrew Ellington is your third string running back, you’re in good shape. Ellington will be the teams scat back to break defenses on limited touches with his speed late in games. The main two names are the Johnson Bros. (Paton Pending), David and Chris. Chris Johnson is going to be 31 at the start of the season, but still has the speed to be a major difference maker on third downs or as a change-of-pace back. David Johnson as a rookie last season scored 13 total touchdowns in pretty limited action. When he was finally given the starting reigns, he grabbed them and never turned back. David Johnson enters the year with enormous expectations (looking at you, fantasy football nuts). This offense could wind up the best in football. They sure will be fun to watch on Sundays.

The defense is also going to cause trouble. Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu man what is one of the league’s most versatile secondaries. Fellow safeties Tony Jefferson and hybrid safety/linebacker Deone Bucannon chip into the versatility and make the defense that much more interesting. Mathieu is coming off his second major knee injury since coming into the NFL. The team surely hopes he can return to last year’s All-Pro form. The pass rush has always been “good enough” in Arizona. So, Arizona shipped off underachieving guard Johnathan Cooper and a 2^nd round pick from this year’s draft to New England to acquire stud pass rusher Chandler Jones. The team also spent their first round pick on defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche. Talk about attacking a weakness… Joined with defensive lineman Calais Campbell and second-year pass rusher Markus Golden, this defensive could see a major uptick in the sack department. Altogether, this team has few weaknesses. Short of tight end and an established no.2 cornerback, this team looks set to deal out some major damage in the NFC. The only downside is after this season, the Cardinals will likely face some major departures via free agency. The window may close, but with Keim’s drafting, the team should only reload.

Record Projection: 12-4

Los Angeles Rams:

Welcome back to the city of angels! Truth be told, this is where the Rams truly belong. If only their Super Bowl ring in St. Louis could’ve moved with the team… But how good would that truly feel? It’s about time this city won a Super Bowl ring. Hell, it’s about time this Rams team won more than 7 games! Rewind to 2012. New General Manager Les Snead performed highway robbery in the Robert Griffin III trade. In the eight picks acquired from that trade, the Rams grabbed nose tackle Michael Brockers, cornerback Janoris Jenkins (now with New York Giants), running back Isaiah Pead (free agent), offensive guard Rokevious Watkins (free agent), linebacker Alec Ogletree, wide receiver Stedman Bailey, running back Zac Stacy (traded to New York Jets), and offensive tackle Greg Robinson. Of the names still with the Rams, Ogletree is far and away their best player. I made the bold prediction if the Rams couldn’t win a Super Bowl before 2020 then they were a failure of an organization. I firmly stand behind that statement four years later and they have shown no signs of being anywhere even remotely close to a Super Bowl berth. To make matters even better, the Rams did a “reverse RGIII trade” and shipped off their first, both of their second, and third round picks in the 2016 draft plus their first and third round picks in 2017 for quarterback Jared Goff. They may have jeopardized their future so the plan is to win now. Let’s see how that’ll work out…

The best feature this team has to offer is its defense, particularly the front four. Back in the 60s, the LA Rams had a defensive line known as “the Fearsome Foursome” featuring some incredible talent including Hall of Famer Deacon Jones. The defensive line this LA Rams team has is nothing short of incredible. Defensive end Robert Quinn and defensive tackle Aaron Donald are perhaps two All-Pros when healthy joined by stud nose tackle Michael Brockers and defensive end William Hayes. The depth is nice, too, including Dominique Easley, Eugene Sims, and Quinton Couples to name a few. The linebackers will be captained by Alec Ogletree with guest appearances by Akeem Ayers and linebacker/safety hybrid Mark Barron. The secondary could be in flux after losing Janoris Jenkins and safety Rodney McLeod in free agency. The team slapped the franchise tag on cornerback Trumaine Johnson and signed cornerback Coty Sensabaugh to provide depth to a weak position. Safety TJ McDonald will man one of the safety spots with the other likely a rotation. I’ve seen some terrible secondaries be masked by phenomenal pass rushes and front sevens. I’m sure the Rams are hoping they can be another one of those cases.

The offense will be interesting to say the least. The Rams went all in on Jared Goff and grabbed him weapons with their remaining picks in the form of wide receivers Pharoh Cooper and Mike Thomas as well as tight ends Tyler Higbee and Temarrick Hemingway. They join a receiving corps featuring wide receivers Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey, Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, and undrafted rookie free agent Nelson Spruce and tight end Lance Kendricks. Besides Tavon Austin on occasion, none of those names scare me as a defensive coordinator. Here is a name that TERRIFIES me: Todd Gurley. Gurley is the reigning offensive rookie of the year and rushed for over 1,100 yards with 4.8 YPC and 10 touchdowns in just 12 starts. He did that coming off of less than a year removed from an ACL tear his final year of college. Anyone who saw/faced Gurley knows he is in for an even bigger 2016 season now fully healthy. The offensive line is pretty patchwork, with some decent starters in offensive guard Rodger Saffold and right tackle Rob Havenstein. Greg Robinson is now in a make-or-break year as the team’s starting left tackle. The former number two overall pick needs his play to be matched to his selection. Overall, Goff and this offense could put up 17-20 points-per-game behind Gurley and this defense should make plenty of big plays. But similar to the Kansas City Chiefs, if this team gets behind in a game I severely doubt they can throw their way back into it. And I think that secondary will give them a lot of shoot outs. Hopefully after one final disappointing season, Rams fans can move on from Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher. The move has been needed for two-or-so years. Hopefully 2017 brings that change.

Record Projection: 6-10

San Francisco 49ers:

My, how the mighty have fallen. Just three years ago the 49ers were in the Super Bowl and just one play away from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Now they are quarterback-less and virtually void of talent. Short of a few key players, this roster is one of the saddest in the NFL. Retirements, free agency, poor draft decisions, and a mess in the front office has taken this team full of hope and trashed it faster than Chris Johnson’s 40-time. New head coach Chip Kelly will attempt to bring back a spark to this offense that virtually has one proven electrifying player, but more on that soon. This defense has about three players worth talking about, and the rest is pretty garbage. Change is needed, and Kelly isn’t even close to the answer.

Starting with the quarterback situation of Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick, this “competition” alone should tell you all you need to know about the 49ers 2016 season. From there, the offensive line features a stud in left tackle Joe Staley and that’s about it. Rookie offensive guard Joshua Garnett will likely be a starter his rookie season. Nothing to write home about at tight end with decent players in Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek. The wide receiving corps features electric downfield threat, but very inconsistent, Torrey Smith. Smith has shown his the past he can thrive as a team’s number one receiver (1,128 yards as Baltimore’s top receiver), but he will only go as far as his quarterbacks will take him. Don’t even get me started on running back Carlos Hyde. As Regina George once famously said to fantasy football fans, “Stop trying to make Carlos Hyde happen, it’s not going to happen!” or something like that… Hyde has shown very little promise as a starter in his two years in the league and behind a below average offensive line with virtually no other threats on offense, Hyde won’t see hardly any opportunities to shine. Yet I constantly see him pegged with 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns in fantasy magazines. UGH. Don’t get me started… Anyways, this offense stinks. You want a bold prediction? This will be the worst starting offense in the NFL in terms of scrimmage yards per game.

Then we have the 49ers defense. Here’s the good news: linebacker NaVorro Bowman, safety Eric Reid, and nose tackle Ian Williams return. The bad news? The rest of the defense is all upside! That’s not ideal for a team that needs answers now. Defensive lineman Arik Armstead looks like he can take another step forward. I liked pass rusher Aaron Lynch a lot before he decided to get suspended. Rookie defensive lineman looks like a potential stud but he hasn’t even played a down yet. Plus, he will be asked to be a key contributor and a likely captain as a rookie. This secondary is terrible. Cornerback Trumaine Brock is a stud when he is your third guy, not your first. Flex safety/corner/linebackers Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt will likely make lots of plays because of their versatility and the fact that they will be all over the field making up for their teammates missed assignments. This defense is in serious trouble. As is this team. They say your team will only go as far as your quarterbacks, and this team won’t see more than five wins because of them.

Record Projection: 3-13

Seattle Seahawks:

12^th Man! Your team is once again Super Bowl contenders. What’s new? Is it getting old yet? Must be nice… Anyways, the philosophy of this team’s offense has changed. Once a ground-and-pound team behind running back Marshawn Lynch, this team has opened up the passing offense behind quarterback Russell Wilson and his cast of misfit toys. The defense is still a top three at worst unit in the NFL. And thanks to head coach Pete Carrol and General Manager John Schneider, the talent on this Seahawks team is deeper than the Pacific Ocean (it’s a metaphor, people!). What else is there to say? Let’s take a look at the roster and then predict safely double digit wins.

This offense is going to be crazy. Behind a patchwork offensive line, Russell Wilson lit up NFL defenses. Wilson set career highs in pass completion (68.1%), passing yards (4,024), and passing touchdowns (34). He does this damage with wide receivers Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and Jermaine Kearse. Not to slight them at all, but they aren’t exactly house hold names throughout the league – especially Baldwin – before last season. Count me in on the Tyler Lockett hype-train. I love him. In fact, I believe he can join Antonio Brown as the only other player in NFL history to record 1,000 receiving and return yards in a single season. The run game will be a committee and no, I am not on Thomas Rawls hype train. He is too one dimensional for me and yes I know how successful he was last season before he got injured. But this is also a passing offense now and the line isn’t good enough for him to continue to dominate. Rookie running backs CJ Prosise and Alex Collins also feature to be contributors in this offense (Prosise on passing/third downs and Collins on the goal line). That’s not a bad thing for you, Seattle fans! Just fantasy football nuts…

This defense really doesn’t need too much said about it. You have the Legion of Boom with cornerback Richard Sherman and safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor; you can peg all of them for All-Pros. You have a defensive line with plenty of depth and edge rushing demons Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. You have linebackers Bobby Wagner and KJ Wright. And you combine all of those players with their respective versatility and chemistry with one another. Finally, you have a product that will once again reign supreme in the NFL. This defense with this offense should seriously contend for years to come. And this year is no exception. Peg them those double digit wins I gave them. While you’re at it, give them the division title and the top seed in the NFC playoff picture.

Record Projection: 13-3

Division Overview:

The NFC West has two big time contenders with at a surprise appearance by the Rams every couple weeks. The 49ers are in limbo for now, but the right coaching changes could have them rebound quickly. The Seahawks and Cardinals should contend for a few years so long as health remains a constant. In two years, we could be looking at a four-way log jam for the rights to best in the division. I would love to see that happen, but for now we get to see the Cardinals and the Seahawks duke it out in what should be the league’s best rivalry game this season. (P.S. I don’t hate your team, 49ers fans!)

NFC West Projected Standing:

1. Seattle Seahawks: 13-3 (4-2 in division)

2. Arizona Cardinals: 12-4 (5-1 in division)

3. Los Angeles Rams: 6-10 (3-3 in division)

4. San Francisco 49ers: 3-13 (0-6 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.