Dissecting the NFL: NFC East

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by-division. This week covers the NFC East.

The NFC East: arguably the worst division in the NFL. Due to massive parity as well as inconsistency among the four teams, the division is up for grabs. This also makes predicting this division a massive pain in the rear. Last season, it was easy to peg Washington to finish last, yet they won the division with a 9-7 record. This season, it appears the Philadelphia Eagles will be the easiest team to peg as last place, but who knows? If the Dallas Cowboys can remain healthy, they can win the division. If the New York Giants offense takes off and their free agency spending pays off, they can win the division. If Washington’s secondary steps its game up and Kirk Cousins continues his hot streak, they can win the division. If the Philadelphia Eagles can get some major luck and play as a whole, they can win the division. A lot of ifs; a lot of uncertainty. Let’s dive into some analysis and opinions that I’m sure everyone will disagree with!

Dallas Cowboys:

Oh, Cowboys fans… Last season was full of “what if’s” for this team loaded with talent and dismantled by injuries. Just two seasons ago, the Cowboys won their division with a 12-4 record, had a running back with the rushing yards title, a wide receiver with 16 touchdowns, and were one “drop” away from an NFC Championship appearance. This season will be entirely dependent on health. A healthy Dallas squad will challenge for double digit wins and a division title. Another injury plagued season will have Dallas competing for another top five draft slot for 2017. Unfortunately, health simply isn’t a given for this team anymore.

Quarterback Tony Romo, with multiple back and collar bone issues, is now the ripe age of 36. Even behind the best offensive line in the NFL (and it’s not even close, quite frankly), he can’t seem to catch a break. Romo’s health will make-or-break the Cowboys season. Star linebacker Sean Lee has also had an injury plagued career up to this point. Last season saw Lee play in 14 games and rack up an impressive 128 tackles, 2.5 sacks and one interception. His health will determine how well the defense plays, especially with starting pass rushers Randy Gregory and Demarcus Lawrence each suspended the first four games of the season. Manufacturing a pass rush is never ideal.

Cowboys’ fans have to be excited about the team’s first round pick Ezekiel Elliot. The former Buckeye’s running back will come into the league with all the talent in the world to run behind that previously mentioned offensive line. A healthy Dez Bryant will make match up nightmares for opposing defenses. If the team can get any other production from their rookies, especially linebacker Jaylon Smith, the Cowboys can be serious players in the NFC. The team just has plenty of optimism surrounding it and a weak division to help inflate their record.

I personally like this Cowboys team to finish second place this season, but wouldn’t be surprised by a last place or first place finish purely based off potential and health. Tony Romo is the key to this season. When the Cowboys won the division two years ago, he was surgical. Last season, in limited action, he was among the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Dallas needs him to stay healthy and productive if they want a shot at the post season.

Record Projection: 9-7

New York Giants:

This offseason, The New York Giants decided to promote from within following the release of former head coach Tom Coughlin. Now rookie head coach Ben McAdoo, with his offensive minded mentality, will inherit an offense he has had lots of time to work with as well as some interesting weapons. It goes without saying how talented Odell Beckham is. Eli Manning seems to be hitting is stride. And oh my goodness did the Giants splurge in free agency this offseason!

The Giants front office went all in on adding talent to their defense after poor showing the past couple seasons. They resigned pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul to a “prove it” one-year deal. They made pass rusher Olivier Vernon the highest paid defensive end in the NFL and also brought in nose tackle Damon Harrison. Matched with fellow defensive linemen Johnathan Hankins, this defensive line has some serious potential. I wasn’t a huge fan of the big contract given to inconsistent cornerback Janoris Jenkins, but his big play ability is worth noting. However, for every play he makes, he gives one up. A gambler, he will be an interesting fit in a secondary featuring Dominique Rogers-Cromartie, Landon Collins, and rookies Eli Apple and Darian Thompson.

The offense will have massive fire power in the passing game. Odell Beckham, a (hopefully) healthy Victor Cruz, and rookie Sterling Shepard provide big play ability at wide receiver. A gun slinger mentality for Eli Manning will also help, as he may challenge for 5,000 yards passing. That’s the positives on offense. The negatives include what will be an inconsistent run game “lead” by Rashad Jennings. Rookie running back Paul Perkins has some nice upside, but expectations should be tempered. The offensive line is all potential; it will either dominate or be sub-par.

As a whole, this Giants team is going to be hit-or-miss. No in between. A first place finish out of the men in blue isn't out of the picture this season. The offense will be tough to stop through the air and if their free agent acquisitions pay off, the defense could be solid if not great. Look out for this team come the post season (should they make it). The Giants know exactly how to get hot at the right time.

Record Projection: 9-7

Philadelphia Eagles:

Former head coach and director of personnel decisions left a dumpster fire for the Eagles’ brass to clean up after. Horrendous trades and questionable free agency moves have set this team back what could be three years. Sure, they have some nice pieces, but over all this team is a mess. The offensive line is mediocre, the defense has pieces scattered throughout, and the offensive weapons are limited. Rookie head coach Doug Pederson has his work cut out for him, but the familiarity with the front office should provide him some extra time to right the ship.

Quarterback is by far the most intriguing factor for this team. Sam Bradford was resigned to a big contract that was completely undeserved. The team also signed career backup Chase Daniel and gave up the farm for the number two overall pick in this past draft to take Carson Wentz out of North Dakota State. There is no clear idea of who will start, and the Eagles have a ton of money invested between the three quarterbacks. Surely the Eagles’ brass will be expecting above average play from one of the three this season.

The defense has some good pass rushers and basically complete upside everywhere else. Defensive end Fletcher Cox is one of the best defenders in the NFL who doesn’t get the credit he deserves. Linebacker Mychal Kendricks and pass rushers Vinny Curry, Brandon Graham, and Connor Barwin also make up a solid front seven for the Eagles. A healthy Jordan Hicks at linebacker could also be extremely useful. The secondary is completely unproven between Eric Rowe and rookie Jalen Mills. Veterans Michael Jenkins, Leodis McKelvin, and Rodney McLeod will be relied on heavily.

Wide receiver Jordan Matthews is virtually the only offensive weapon the Eagles possess. If running back Ryan Matthews stays healthy that’s a different story, but he shouldn’t be relied on. This team is going to struggle offensively. The defensive will be dependent on the secondary’s play. As a whole, don’t expect this team to do very much this season.

Record Projection: 5-11

Washington:

General Manager Scott McCloughan is making what could become a stacked Washington team in his image. McCloughan has focused on building up the trenches and Washington seems to be building towards a dominant offensive line to protect quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins will play under the franchise tag this year to prove last season was not a fluke. Overall, the Washington team appears to have some significant, untapped talent that in two years could become extraordinary.

Looking at the offense, Cousins as a multitude or weapons to throw to. Their wide receiver depth chart is maybe the deepest in the NFL. They feature DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garçon, Jamison Crowder, and rookie Josh Doctson. Not to mention talented tight end Jordan Reed, who when healthy is one of the most dynamic tight ends in the league. The only question mark will be at running back, where second-year pro Matt Jones will take the reins. He showed promise as a rookie, but also a lot of inconsistencies.

The defense features one of my favorite pass rushing groups in the NFL. Ryan Kerrigan, Junior Gallette (love the talent, hate the off field), Trent Murphy, and Preston Smith form a deep and talented group. The defensive line is in a bit of a flux with veterans Chris Baker, Ricky Jean-Francois, Stephen Paea, Kendall Ryes, and Ziggy Hood making up the rotation. The secondary gets a boost with All-Pro Josh Norman joining the group. Third year pro Baushad Breeland looks to continue making strides as Washington’s slot corner. The secondary has been a huge weakness for Washington in recent years. Hopefully the addition of Norman can help to turn it around. Rookie impacts from hybrid safety/linebacker Su'a Cravens and cornerback Kendall Fuller should also help to stop the bleeding secondary.

Overall, I really like this team top to bottom. I just don’t know how much stock you can fairly put into a team that consistently misses expectations. I can see them challenging for the division this season. But I truly believe they are still a step behind Dallas and New York for now.

Record Projection: 8-8

Division Overview:

This division may be viewed as the worst in the NFL, but I believe they will be the most interesting group to monitor this season. The division is up for grabs and the feeling that anything can happen is very prominent. Nothing seems certain and when we look back at my projections, I have a feeling I’m going to look very silly for some of my analysis. As I've stated before, I love when I am wrong and truly hope they can exceed my personal expectations.

NFC East Projected Standings:

1. New York Giants: 9-7 (4-2 in division)

2. Dallas Cowboys: 9-7 (3-3 in division)

3. Washington: 8-8 (2-4 in division)

4. Philadelphia Eagles: 5-11 (3-3 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Thank you for the read.

NFL Long-Shots: Can Jamaal Charles be a 2,000 Rusher?

Jamaal Charles has been a stud in the NFL for many seasons, doing just about everything you can think of for the Chiefs offense. In his eight year career, Charles has accumulated 7,220 rushing yards and 42 touchdowns. Not the most impressive numbers, but Charles has also never had less than 5.0 yards per carry (YPC) in his eight year career. That is impressive in itself. Only one thing has held him back from true greatness: his health. Charles is coming off a 2015 season that saw it end just five games in due to an ACL tear in his right knee. In those five games, however, the Chief's running back racked up an impressive 364 yards rushing with four touchdowns. Looking towards the 2016 season, expectations should be tempered for the 29 year-old back. Asking for 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns seems realistic for someone of his caliber. But why not stretch the imagination? Can Jamaal Charles rush for 2,000 yards this season?

It’s certainly a bold claim, and not one I’m willing to hang my hat on. The 2,000-Yard Rusher’s Club is a small and talented group, featuring three Hall of Famers (OJ Simpson, Eric Dickerson, and Barry Sanders), two future Hall of Famers (Terrell Davis and Adrian Peterson), and two studs (Chris Johnson and Jamal Lewis). To put Charles among those ranks would certainly help his Hall of Fame case, but that milestone has been accomplished just seven times since 1973. We also mentioned how Charles is coming off an ACL injury, another obstacle for him to cross. All this in mind, it’s not impossible for Charles to accomplish. After all, his talent and track record shows he has the potential to at least challenge that mark. Let’s dive into why this could happen:

His Career YPC

As previously mentioned, Jamaal Charles is pretty good at running the football. His career average YPC is an incredible 5.5, good enough for first place all-time. We also mentioned how his career low for a season was 5.0, which he has done twice. His best over an entire season (excluding his 6.9 over two games in 2011) was a whopping 6.4 in 2010. He rushed for 1,467 yards that year through 16 games. Those stats are absolutely ridiculous. Comparing them to the 2,000-Yard Rusher’s Club, Charles stacks up well. The lowest YPC from those seasons was 5.1 by Terrell Davis. That’s a mark that Charles can reach no problem. Charles is known for his break-away speed and ability to simply beat defenders to the edge. Charles is also known for his ankle-breaking jukes, just ask his former teammate Sanders Commings. His moves may not be as good as when he was younger and had less wear-and-tear, but I would imagine he can still make defenders look silly in the open field.

The Chiefs’ Offensive System

If there is one thing Chiefs’ Head Coach Andy Reid loves to do, it’s run the football. Reid also employs the West-Coast offense that allows for a quick-striking passing offense. Captained by quarterback Alex Smith, the Chiefs offense gets the job done through the air, but the team has definitely relied on their above-average run game to win close games. Thankfully, Charles has fit into Reid’s system seamlessly. His best season overall came in 2013. Charles rushed for 1,287 yards with 12 touchdowns (5.0 YPC) and also caught 70 passes for 693 yards and seven touchdowns. That was Reid’s first season in Kansas City. With Smith at quarterback, wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, and tight end Travis Kelce, this Chiefs’ squad has just enough fire power to take some of the pressure off Charles, but still to the point that he is the main weapon of the offense.

History

In 2011, Jamaal Charles was coming off a season in which he rushed for over 1,400 yards and averaged 6.4 YPC over the entire 2010 season. Two games into the 2011 season, Charles was off to another good start before he tore his ACL. He would miss the remainder of the season. The 2012 season would serve as Jamaal Charles’ resurgence to the NFL. He wound up grabbing a career best 1,509 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and five touchdowns.

In 2015, Jamaal Charles was coming off a season in which he rushed for over 1,000 yards and averaged 5.0 YPC over the course of 15 games. Five games into the 2015 season, Charles was off to another good start before he tore his ACL. He would miss the remainder of the season… You fill in the rest.

History often serves as a fun thing to hang your hat on. There are no guarantees, but if you are right you always love the saying, “history repeats itself”. I’m not the biggest believer when it comes to this saying, but I do realize it is sometimes true. ACL tears are not the death sentences for running backs that they use to be. Charles has shown he can rebound from it no problem. He also tore it early enough in the season that he should be nearly 100% healthy for the start of 2016. A healthy Charles is as dangerous a running back in the NFL as you’ll find.

Bringing it all together, the odds are stacked against Jamaal Charles to grab 2,000 rushing yards. Charles returns to an offense that has plenty of talent in the back field to keep him fresh as well as a passing attack that should take a step forward this season. But on the other side, the Chiefs’ offensive line got an upgrade at right tackle in Mitchell Schwartz and a defense that won’t allow too many big leads for the opposing team. That will lead to more rushing opportunities for Charles.

For what it’s worth, Charles could be facing a similar situation to the one Adrian Peterson faced going into the 2012 season. Both coming off ACL tears (Peterson’s was much later in the season than Charles’), both have/had offenses that were potent enough to do the job (Vikings featured Kyle Rudolph and Percy Harvin), and both were featured backs with all the talent in the world. Important note: Adrian Peterson is a freak, and I am not saying Charles = AD. All I am saying is their situations are similar and as we mentioned earlier, “history repeats itself”.

2,000 rushing yards is an incredibly difficult task, especially in today’s modern era were passing offenses dominate. Coming off a big knee injury certainly wouldn’t help anyone to accomplish this task. But Jamaal Charles isn’t just your average running back. Jamaal Charles isn’t some running back who can’t do it all. Jamaal Charles is one of the best running backs in the NFL. If he plays 16 games healthy, expect him to at least challenge for the legendary 2,000-yard mark.

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Articles available every Friday. Thank you for the read.

Disecting The NFL: AFC East

Each week, we dive into analysis and record projections for every team in the NFL, division-by division. This week covers the AFC East.

The AFC East has long been dominated by the New England Patriots with guest performances by the rest of the division to help make it appear to be a decent division. The reality is, this is still New England’s division to lose. The rest of the division really is personal preference and opinion based. Some love the Miami Dolphins to finish second thanks to rookie head coach Adam Gase and an opportunistic defense. Others take the Buffalo Bills, who seem to have a good roster doomed by inconsistent coaching. And finally are the New York Jets, who without a quarterback could be doomed to a season with tons of talent, but lacking at the most important position. Ahead is a detailed analysis of these four teams and record projections based off of these opinions.

Buffalo Bills:

The Buffalo Bills enter a make-or-break season under head coach Rex Ryan. Ryan is only entering his second year as the Bills head coach, but after a mediocre first season for a Bills team that had playoff expectations, owner Terrence Pegula has informed Ryan as well as general manager Doug Whaley that if they fail to reach the post season, they will both be terminated. Given Rex Ryan’s track record, this could prove to be a daunting task regardless of a talented roster. No pressure.

This Bills team has excess talent in some areas such as running back and pass rushers but also has roster holes such as the right side of the offensive line. The offense should click, so long as Tyrod Taylor can remain healthy. Taylor showed plenty of promise last season, tossing 3,035 yards and 20 touchdowns while completing 63.7% of his passes in 14 games. He also managed to rush for 568 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry. While the Bills organization isn’t sold on Taylor, you can put me in the camp that does. Just in case, the Bills spent a fourth round pick on former Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones as a solid back-up plan. Whoever is throwing the football, they can count on third-year wide receiver Sammy Watkins to make plays all over the field.

The strength of this team lies in Watkins, defensive tackle Marcell Dareus, and offensive tackle Cordy Glenn. If these three stay healthy, you can count of Pro Bowl appearances out of the three. Other key performers include offensive guard Richie Incognito, running back LeSean McCoy, corner backs Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby, and pass rusher Jerry Hughes. Rookie impacts can be expected from first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland respectively.

All in all, this team will either click and be a playoff contender or fall apart and be looking at a top 15 draft pick. Count me in as one of those analysts that sees the Bills underachieving. Not because of the talent of this roster, but because of the coaching staff.

Record Projection: 7-9

Miami Dolphins:

Rookie head coach Adam Gase will take over a team that features Ryan Tannehill at quarterback and a stable of wide receivers ready to take off in his offense. Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, and rookie Leonte Carroo look to be the main pass catchers for this offense, as well as tight end Jordan Cameron (should he remain healthy for 16 games). The biggest question mark remains at running back, where Jay Ajayi looks to be the starter. He looked explosive at times last season, but also only managed 3.8 yards per carry as a part time contributor. If the offensive line can find some stability, this could be a fun and interesting offense to monitor in 2016.

The biggest problem for this team lies in the defense. Though the names Ndamukong Suh, Cameron Wake, and Mario Williams strike fear into the hearts of quarterbacks, they are all ages 29, 34, and 31 respectively and won’t be as effective as they were 3 years ago. I am a huge Cameron Wake fan, but coming off an Achilles tear at his age and performing at a high level is asking a lot. Suh and Williams also were somewhat ineffective last year and may continue to be streaky at this point in their careers. The rest of the defense gives me a massive question mark. Kiko Alonso and Byron Maxwell were very average in due part to injuries and inconsistent play respectively during the time with the Philadelphia Eagles last season. The one consistent presence will be Pro Bowl safety Reshad Jones, who is quietly a top five safety in the league.

Rookie offensive tackle and first round pick Laremy Tunsil will be relied on early all over the offensive line, more than likely appearing as a guard to start his career, to provide a clean pocket for Tannehill. Rookies Xavien Howard, Kenyon Drake, and Leonte Carroo will be asked to do a lot year one. Howard will be forced into a starting role, Drake will more than likely be the primary return man as well as a change-of-pace running back, and Carroo could very well end up as the team’s third receiver.

It’s fair to expect a team with plenty of talent to shoot for a .500 record, but the teams holes could prove costly, especially if the injury bug strikes this team. Relying on a lot of rookies to perform could also either make or break their season. I may not be huge on the Dolphins this season, but I do like the moves they made for the future.

Record Projection: 5-11

New England Patriots:

Where to begin with this team? A perennial Super Bowl contender with arguably the greatest quarterback in NFL history, a future first ballot hall of fame head coach, the best tight end in the NFL, solid production from the wide receiver and running back corps, and a defense that could make big strides this season. Sound about right?

The Patriots top to bottom have a roster that will run away with the division and compete with the rest of the AFC for the top seed in the playoffs. There’s really only one big flaw with the team: the offensive line. Tom Brady was sacked an astonishing 38 times last season. Not to mention in the AFC championship game against the Denver Broncos, Brady was hit an incredible 20 times in that one game. That was more than any quarterback had been hit in any game in the 2015 season (per Pro Football Talk). The offensive line will return starters Nate Solder at left tackle and Bryan Stork at center. Still, this unit could prove to be the weak link of the team.

The Patriots also shipped out Pro Bowl pass rusher Chandler Jones in the offseason to the Arizona Cardinals. Jones racked up an impressive 36 sacks in just four seasons with the club. His presence will surely be missed on the defensive side of the ball. The strength of the team will be the line backing core featuring Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins. The two missed four games each last season, but their presence when on the field together cannot be understated. Arguably the best linebacker duo in the NFL, Hightower and Collins will command this defense. Safety Devin McCourty will also provide veteran leadership and ball-hawking skills in the secondary with lots of young talent. All that on defense, and a dominant offense that doesn’t need much said about it. Brady to Gronk. That’s all you need to know.

A division title and probably a top two seed in the playoffs in is to be expected, and that is simply unreal. Brady and Bill Belichick will once again provide a dominant team with the necessary ammo to shoot for a fifth Super Bowl championship since 2002. What more could the New England area ask for?

Record Projection: 12-4

New York Jets:

The Jets just barely missed the post season last year, despite an impressive 10-6 record following up their 4-12 performance in 2014. Now second-year head coach Todd Bowles will once again provide a dominant defense, headlined by cornerback Darrelle Revis and defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The team also brings back defensive linemen Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams, linebacker David Harris, and safety Calvin Pryor to what should once again be one of the NFL’s top defensive units. The offense is loaded with veterans who appear to have a lot left in the tank in running back Matt Forte and wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. The biggest question mark is at the most important position: quarterback.

Last year’s starter Ryan Fitzpatrick remains unsigned after having a career year with the Jets. The roster currently hosts former second round pick Geno Smith, second-year pro Bryce Petty, and rookie Christian Hackenberg. While I myself am high on Hackenberg, he needs a lot of grooming. None of those options should impress Jets fans, either. Even if the team were to resign Fitzpatrick, he is no guarantee to repeat what he did last season. Let’s look at Fitzpatrick’s last big contract: following a 2010 season in which he threw 23 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, the Buffalo Bills signed Fitzpatrick to a six-year $59 million deal. He followed that up with a 24 touchdown to 23 interception season in 2011. He remained with the team just one more season after that before being cut by Buffalo. Fitzpatrick had the greatest season for a quarterback in the Jets history, but he wants top dollar to come back to the team. At 33 years old and given his history, the Jets have plenty of reason to be cautious. Regardless, the quarterback situation is a mess and could possibly doom a very talented roster.

The defense will once again be the strength of this team. Despite rumors the Jets are shopping Pro Bowl defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson, their other two defensive linemen in Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson are also borderline dominant options. Darrelle Revis is also a future hall of famer at cornerback and has shown no signs of slowing down. The Jets also spent a first round pick on versatile linebacker Darron Lee to help man the line backing corps. Rookie outside linebacker Jordan Jenkins should also help provide pass rushing skills from the line backing corps; something the Jets have been lacking in recent years. The loss of nose tackle Damon Harrison will hurt, but the Jets defense should continue to roll without him.

All in all, this roster will either compete for the playoffs or be looking at a top ten draft pick for 2017. I personally believe in this roster to make it by without strong quarterbacking, but we also saw last year that this team will only go as far as their quarterbacks will take them. Look for this team to miss expectations and have a down year.

Record Projection: 6-10

Division Overview:

The AFC East is dominated by the New England Patriots, no debate. The rest of the division is a mystery, as all three of these teams could either shoot for a .500 record or falter and look lost all season. I personally don’t believe in this division to go far and also find it one of the weaker divisions in football. However, like most analysts I am often wrong and I like to be wrong. So prove me wrong AFC East. I may not believe in your division, but I do believe in the tremendous upside of all your teams.

AFC East Projected Standings:

1. New England Patriots- 12-4 (6-0 in division)

2. Buffalo Bills- 7-9 (2-4 in division)

3. New York Jets- 6-10 (3-3 in division)

4. Miami Dolphins- 5-11 (1-5 in division)

Richard Bradshaw is available to follow on twitter @RichieBradz36. Articles available every Friday. Thank you for the read.